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[基础分析] 怎样看美国的现状和钱景?

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发表于 2011-3-7 05:08 PM | 显示全部楼层


美国人的就业率来自哪里?

Bill Gross的问题:Who Will Buy (Treasury Bond)? After June 30t ...
Whigs 发表于 2011-3-7 00:57


QE has to continue, in the foreseeable future.
states need money. munis need money.
there's no other choice.
as far as the printer is running, stock will go up

but the painful part is,
the speed that economy grows can never match Fed's printing machine.
so if americans still want to pretend as if nothing has changed,
the money has to come from the printer, not manufacture or solid economy
borrow, print, spend
just a big big ponzi scheme, nothing special

just uncle sam should think more seriously
on the consequence of USD devaluation / commodity skyrocketing / reflection of mess to USA from rest of the world.
Utah house just approved gold and silver as legal tender.
first nail for USD's coffin?
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-7 05:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ctcld 于 2011-3-8 01:18 编辑

回复 20# jamesmith


这么说吧,
前半段说的是怎么圈钱,后半段说的是怎佯回报投资人。

金融手段和企业盈利(不管盈利来自本土还是外土)一个都不能少。企业竞争需要资金,生产和销售。传统的这三个渠道已经被全球经济一体化重新分配了。
今后股市上去了,本土的就业未必就能好多少,因为经济增长的模式变了。
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发表于 2011-3-7 05:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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发表于 2011-3-7 06:07 PM | 显示全部楼层
美国人民的失业高是由发展中国家的就业高弥补了?失业超过20%,30%呢?...也没问题了?这个经济增长模式的特点就是雷人呀。呵呵~~
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发表于 2011-3-7 06:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 21# layschips

Madoff 好冤啊!
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发表于 2011-3-7 06:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
new point.
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发表于 2011-3-7 06:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
QE has to continue, in the foreseeable future.
states need money. munis need money.
there's n ...
layschips 发表于 2011-3-7 17:08



    油价还没咋的呢(没咋的的意思是有可能会更高而失控),大家难道真的没有感受到通胀的威胁吗?我同意大本印钱是不得已而为止的缓兵之计,但不可能靠QE能解决米国的失业和复苏等根本性问题。谁说食物和能源消费占的比例轻就能忽视这个民生问题?眼看QE2忽悠·玩了,看大本还怎么把戏唱下去?是继续QE3还是加息,都没解。拭目以待。。。
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发表于 2011-3-7 06:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
I have been working in US hi-tech industry fifteen years, seen the industry ups and downs.
Manufacturing and engineering, soon or later, all will be gone in USA, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, computer engineering, electrical engineering....all of engineering, due to the cost, efficiency… , an easy way is to offshore. It’s not US government’s proposal. It’s a decision of top company management. As engineer, I couldn’t save it.
US will have to use its fair and efficient tax system, banking system, financial system, … to re-build itself. Needless to say, the financial system in USA even has tons of problems (exposed in last recession), but still much better, cleaner and more efficient than any other nations (China, Russia, Mexico, Arabs…). More important, American are animals loving $$$. They only will feel safe when they are in charge of any money, theirs or yours. They won’t lose any control of money. Hence, they will and have to run their Wall Street better in any way to make it attractive, more attractive so that all moneys flow into USA.
In future, Engineering Sectors will be gone in USA. No doubt. If a satellite or an automobile made in USA, most likely it explores after it launches. USA will be lack of qualified engineering professionals.
But USA will do its best to keep its position of World Financial center. It’s determined by American greed and natures.
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发表于 2011-3-7 08:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复  layschips

Madoff 好冤啊!
crasher 发表于 2011-3-7 18:10


Madoff 以前是干啥的?
non-executive chairman of the NASDAQ stock market
what makes you think WS / Fed is different then?
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发表于 2011-3-7 08:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
I have been working in US hi-tech industry fifteen years, seen the industry ups and downs.
Manufact ...
silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-3-7 18:42


sounds like US is transforming itself to a big Macau?
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发表于 2011-3-7 08:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
油价还没咋的呢(没咋的的意思是有可能会更高而失控),大家难道真的没有感受到通胀的威胁吗?我 ...
ahdou 发表于 2011-3-7 18:22


米国的国家债务不能违约是首要问题
不印钱就没钱买国债了,这个风险担不起
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发表于 2011-3-7 09:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
直觉地认为:
QE的本质还是要吸引中国等国来买美债。
中国买美债就相当于资源外流,如劳动力和稀土,和自家环境的污然代价。
美国自己买美债就相当于稀释美债,这个, 想清楚的人不多啊。
美国就是玩吸星大法的高手。
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发表于 2011-3-7 10:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 umqasr 于 2011-3-8 00:54 编辑

"金融制造大国" - 一个新概念. 好象是在制造一个庞氏骗局. 股市上涨, 外国资本涌入美国股市. 张三传言, SSN 从2011年一月到三月涨一倍(2.2到4.5). 李四说, AAPL 从2010年二月230, 涨到2011年三月360, 王五大叫, LEI 有一口井出了油(500桶一天), 股价从2011年一月的2.35, 涨至今天4.95. 接连上2千万股的日交易量..........

资本具有嗜血的本能,  在美股能赚钱的大局面下. 资本将上演疯狂入市的失控形势. 当垃圾股飞涨时, 大熊就来了. 击鼓传花, 大家不要接股票最后一棒.
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发表于 2011-3-7 11:38 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-8 03:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
I have been working in US hi-tech industry fifteen years, seen the industry ups and downs.
Manufact ...
silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-3-7 18:42



    制造业走了之后,研发水平开始下降。当研发也走了,那么金融就没有支撑了。这些已经发生了,美国不会看着不干预的。制定企业、贸易法规来回流工作,象以前制定严苛的环保法规一样。(受Read0nly老兄系列文章的启发)
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发表于 2011-3-8 04:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
制造业走了之后,研发水平开始下降。当研发也走了,那么金融就没有支撑了。



Not necessary. UK has lost its top position in West countries more than fifty years. But London is still top financial center worldwide. It is even planning to buy NASDAQ.
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发表于 2011-3-9 08:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
3x
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发表于 2011-3-10 09:14 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-10 11:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
回复 29# layschips

Madoff is 聪明反被聪明误. WS/Fed are 难得糊涂. 智慧的层次还是很有讲究的。
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发表于 2011-3-10 12:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复  layschips

Madoff is 聪明反被聪明误. WS/Fed are 难得糊涂. 智慧的层次还是很有讲究的。
crasher 发表于 2011-3-10 11:03


yeah, just clever thief and cleverer thieves...
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