03/07/2011 大盘回顾 （The trend is still up）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX put/call ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short if for aggressive traders only. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term DOWN? 02/18 High 02/24 Low Hold both long and short. This means the trend is unclear so wait. 03/04 long was closed flat, now hold new long entered on 03/07.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE TREND IS STILL UP

 

今天的intraday comment已经说了，still not even a lower low on intraday chart，所以by definition trend is still up (bullish biased)。当然，现在这种情况，牛熊都要小心，因为trend不是很clear，所以see my short-term model，一方面我hold short，另一方面keep buying dips，直到一个方向出错为止，呵呵。

 

 

下面的图是换个角度用n vs n的规则看，也是说bullish biased。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

 

See 03/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP?
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP	*Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly	UP	Too far above BB top.
XLE	03/04 L
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	?	Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

gold50

thanks.

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小板凳！

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PacificLegend

viewer

First page!

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Diver

...
Cobra 发表于 2011-3-7 17:05

yingying

Cobra, just curious, what did you short and what dips did you buy now? It seems you have both long and short now. thanks

acoust

First page!

wave

michaelzhang