03/09/2011 大盘回顾 （Two Inside Bars）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX put/call ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short if for aggressive traders only. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term UP? 02/18 High Hold short, but the trend is unclear so wait.

 

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, A LITTLE BULLISH BIASED THOUGH

 

今天还是没啥说的，SPY还是在Symmetrical Triangle里，因此方向不明，a little bullish biased though，因为Symmetrical Triangle是continuation pattern。到目前为止形成的price bar形态，有个名字叫做inside bar，表示indecision，因此也是方向不明，但是因为是2 inside bars in a row，所以这个形态据说积蓄了很多能量，一旦突破，爆发力会很猛，换句话说，不管你想赌哪一边，都悠着点吧。

 

 

补充一下，之所以我不确定SPY Symmetrical Triangle意味着continue higher是因为VIX也是个Symmetrical Triangle，如果按理也是higher的话，SPY应该跌才对。所以again，总之，目前方向不明，只有等了。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

 

See 03/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP?
XIU.TO	*03/09 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP	Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly	UP	Too far above BB top.
XLE	03/04 L
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	?	Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

navybean

SF? Thanks

rosyrosy

bandeng

qianshui

谢谢!

blackrock

rosyrosy

bandeng

happyface

谢谢

greenback

I unloaded 50% of my short after hour when the indices tanked somewhat ... let's wait for tomorrow OR again ...

Ave

c3456

trender

xz214

armorr

Thanks!!

Bencat

thanks.

Cruiser

班长你讨论SPY和VIX的time frame不一样。如果说SPY是up trend的话，VIX在同样的time frame里是down trend，所以根据continuation pattern VIX要向下。

Cobra

班长你讨论SPY和VIX的time frame不一样。如果说SPY在是up trend的话，VIX在同样的time frame里是down trend ...
Cruiser 发表于 2011-3-9 17:31

    Nope，图不是这么看的。

hfang01

源济

沉默是金

surya