03/10/2011 大盘回顾 （Has another down leg started?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX put/call ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short is for aggressive traders only. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term *DOWN? I hold no position overnight.

 

SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE ANOTHER DOWN LEG HAS STARTED, EVEN THE MARKET COULD BE BOTTOMED

 

今天的下跌是否意味another down leg has started，现在还难说，不能排除短期已经bottom的可能性。理由是price overlapping (both price bars and swings are overlapping)，不像是impulse wave down，此外volume surge，因此有bottom的特征。

 

 

下面的图比较了2010年1月和11月的2次pullback，可以清楚地看到，什么是strong push down，什么是price overlapping。不难看出，为什么1月的pullback走得远，而11月的pullback则要差很多。那么，对比一下我们这次的price pattern，到底现在象11月还是1月，答案应该很清楚。当然，我不是说我们这次是重复11月，我只是说，so far不是impulse wave down，因此不sure是否今天意味着another down leg has started。

 

 

下面的图解释了volume surge的结果，特别是after a few days down以后的volume surge，不排除今天是capitulation or sell exhaustion，因此明天就开始反弹的可能。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

 

See 03/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP?
XIU.TO	03/09 S	*1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP	Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly	UP	Too far above BB top.
XLE	*03/10 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	?	Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

happyface

沙发

X中国陆军

Baichuan

谢了！

cw8888

c3456

Jinan90

6th

navybean

Thanks

lilitulip

very very clear, thank you

ut1984

HTER

dreampen

usamonkey

farmer01

thnaks

neo

derf

thanks a lot

wnd4

thanks

faithflower

Lao da 英明!!

Ave

oda