03/14/2011 大盘回顾 （So far only a dent!）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/12,03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/01 Market Recap: Bearish Engulfing is very bullish in 2 to 4 weeks. 03/10 Market Recap: Price overlaps so the pullback may not go far. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short is for aggressive traders only. ST Model   *Long setup no confirmed and no longer valid. Short-term DOWN I hold no position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

So far我对熊熊很失望，no matter how bad the news is，熊熊到现在都不能有个NO PRICE OVERLAPPING的impulse wave down，因此，这一轮pullback能走多远，实在是个疑问。操作上，失望归失望，但是假如牛牛的反弹也是有气无力的样子的话，the trading strategy still is sell the bounce，毕竟现在officially，both intermediate-term and short-term are in down trend。

 

下面的图显示了SPY自2009年三月以来的所有bullish reversal days，今天算是唯一次，bullish reversal day以后还有个lower low的情况了(so bears finally made a dent)，可惜，没法取消周五的bullish reversal bar，因此重复过去bullish reversal day后大涨的可能性依然很高。

 

下面的图是QQQQ自2009年三月以来所有的hollow red bar at swing low的情况，后面也是大涨。

 

明天是FOMC，从下图的统计看，基本上也是涨多跌少。老实说，我实在不知道还有什么能bring down this market了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	UP	1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP	(weekly) Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	UP
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

trender

safa?

trender

Yes.

Diver

WOW! You are fast today.

  ...
Cobra 发表于 2011-3-14 17:32

farmer01

safa

c3456

wave

Bigmouth

So early? First page?

Bigmouth

jamesmith

first page

萧秋水

hi-liter

the trading strategy still is sell the bounce.

yellowstone

丛林法则

thanks

dsp

thanks.

Jinan90

涨吧，俺被原子弹烧了，不在乎到处起火，顺便把熊屁股也烧了。

jpm

hfang01

dommy

nanosensor

Thanks