03/15/2011 大盘回顾 （Another Dent!）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/12,03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/01 Market Recap: Bearish Engulfing is very bullish in 2 to 4 weeks. 03/10 Market Recap: Price overlaps so the pullback may not go far. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short is for aggressive traders only. ST Model   Short-term DOWN 03/11 High I hold short position overnight, slightly underwater.

SHORT-TERM: THE LOW MAY BE IN BUT EVEN SO WE COULD SEE SOME BACK AND FORTH FILLINGS AS PER PAST PATTERNS

今天我要说什么，大概都能猜得出来，yes, I’m soooooooo (insert 100 “o” here) disappointed in bears。Another big down day met by aggressive dip buyers，真的看起来nothing, nothing at all能让这个market下跌了。不能否认，如果自March 2009以来的pattern还工作的话，今天的daily reversal bar看着很bullish，所以a bottom of some kind could be in。但是今天the last 60 min bar又是个Shooting Star，看着bearish，而the reversal today is way too sharp，一般这种情况下面会有back and forth的filling，有时甚至还会测试today’s low，所以熊熊没完yet。Trading wise，由于现在both short-term and intermediate-term还是downtrend，所以我优先考虑的依然是sell bounce。A huge up day tomorrow，short-term我会on bull’s side。

 

看一下a bottom of some kind could be in的证据。老实说，我已经越来越怕写这么份报告了，我无法预知未来，我只能告诉你过去的pattern是怎么样的，至于这个过去，现在还工不工作，who knows，老实说按我的trading模式，我也不care。Anyway，我已经很注意用词了，所以如果有时候显得很绝对的样子，可能是我疏忽了，总之，我只是帮你把信息挑出来而已，能不能用，怎么用，不是我关心的事情，因为我要做的是objective，不是告诉你我个人拍拍脑袋想出来的主观判断，明白？

VIX body completely out of BB top，看起来至少最近几次都是bottom。

 

下面的图highlighted in blue是SPY ST Model报告的底部信号，not always absolutely a bottom，但是应该close enough。

 

SPY hollow red bar, QQQQ hollow red bar，这个昨天就说来过了，今天算是double reversal bar，因此如果过去的pattern还工作的话，bullish。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	UP	1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP	(weekly) Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	UP
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

surya

Thanks!

michaelzhang

dsp

thanks.

dreampen

Thanks!

源济

Bencat

Crazy MKT!  crazy traders!   

大牛Steve

沉默是金

天天向上

谢谢班长!!!
提问: SPY ST Mode既然报告了底部, 怎么还是在SELL 的mode呢?

meteorshower

c3456

SmartyJones

shafa!

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks.

ht2010

Thanks a lot!

cw8888

greenback

oldfox

Cobra

谢谢班长!!!
提问: SPY ST Mode既然报告了底部, 怎么还是在SELL 的mode呢?
天天向上 发表于 2011-3-15 18:42

    不矛盾，你可以把sell mode理解为downtrend。bottom只是告诉你这个swing bottom了。反弹，能不能改变trend还不好说。

qianshui

thanks!