03/16/2011 大盘回顾 （Rebound maybe but lower low ahead）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 3 of 6 are *OVERSOLD GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/12,03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/01 Market Recap: Bearish Engulfing is very bullish in 2 to 4 weeks. 03/10 Market Recap: Price overlaps so the pullback may not go far. *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. 03/16 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only. ST Model   Sell mode means downtrend. The model needs 2nd signal to open a short position. Short-term DOWN 03/14 High As long as 03/14 high remains intact, the game is to sell bounce.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW BUT THERE’LL BE A LOWER LOW AHEAD

先说题外话，昨天才注意到，我报告的句子里中英文混杂，很难读，这个，我以后会注意。之所以出现这种情况是因为报告最终要翻译成英文，加上有些词用英文更方便些，所以就偷懒了。以后我尽量用完整的中文句子，但是术语，比如lower low，higher high什么的，可能还是要用英文方便些。

三点说明：

1. 最快明天可能会有反弹。
2. 还没有跌完，今天的low不是the low。
3. 操作上，还是sell bounce。具体看上面的表格，short-term操作部份。

先说反弹的理由。

今天的After Bell Quick Summary里已经提了，牛牛明天有76%的机会。

 

6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch，今天是Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9)，也是说牛牛明天有37/56 (66%)的机会。

 

0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator，NYMO oversold，非常可靠，最快明天就该反弹。

 

现在说说还没有跌完的理由。

非常oversold的NYMO意味着要有VISIBLE positive divergence以后才可能会是底。什么叫visible？就是说要反弹后再跌下来，形成的positive divergence才可靠，明天比如说，lower low后大反弹，是肯定没有visible positive divergence的，一定是明天反弹后，过几天跌下来，lower low了，才有可能，明白？

 

五个交易日里有2个Major Distribution Day，可能有短期反弹（见蓝虚线），也可能没有（见红虚线），但是绝大多数情况下后面都还有的跌。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	UP	1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP	(weekly) Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	UP
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

plmt

sf

plmt

songjiang

littlevivi

第一页！

plmt

地板也占上！嘿嘿

schmd2000

X中国陆军

jamesmith

first page

ut1984

windy

usamonkey

328

thanks

lite1067

回复 1# Cobra


干净利落，结论明确，论据充分。有一阵子没看见这么好的报告了。我闪闪。

oda

happyface

thanks

kitten3

thanks

dsp

Got it. 3x

greenback

rosyrosy