03/18/2011 大盘回顾 （Lower Low Ahead?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead. 03/16 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only. ST Model   Sell mode means downtrend. The model needs 2nd signal to open a short position. Short-term DOWN 03/11 High I hold trapped short position over the weekend.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER LOW AHEAD

四点说明：

1. 会有lower low，就是说03/15 low多半不是最终的low。
2. 猜测，自03/16的反弹可能会在03/21左右结束。
3. 猜测，回调最终目标可能是去年11月highs，调整时间可能到四月初。顺便说，中期，我依然认为02/18 highs最终还是会去的。
4. 交易策略还是sell bounce。

为什么说会有lower low？

• 03/16 Market Recap里提了，要有Visible Positive Divergence，最近的反弹是Visible的第一步。

 

• 03/16 Market Recap里提了，5天内有2个Major Distribution Day，会有反弹，但是还没有跌完。现在反弹的预言已经实现，就看是否像过一样有pullback了。

 

• 上周是OE Week，下面图显示了最近所有red OE week的情况，可以看到13 out of 16 (81%)的几率，下周不是收红就是至少会有lower low。

 

• 从03/14到03/15，VIX两天内涨了30%+，下面是Bespoke和Schaeffer的统计，可以看到下周和下下周都不好玩。我把自1990年起所有的情况都画出来了，可以看到绝大多数情况下，VIX涨了30%的那天不是the low，因此熊熊最最安全的trade，是sell bounce then cover near 03/15 low。

 

既然根据上面说的lower low可能性大，那么猜测反弹到03/21左右结束就有一定的道理了。为什么是03/21？因为Full Moon (see table above), Solar Term Date (see table above), Gann Day还有自2000年以来的反转日统计都指向16号到22号这个时间段是最可能的turning point。

 

关于这一轮回调的时间和价位，猜测一下，并没有什么很有力的证据证明，所以有个概念就好了。

一般回调的目标都是上次的高点，对我们这次来说就是去年11月的highs。

 

时间目标，因为四月初有很多cycle due date，因此非常可能是重要的转折点，暂时先猜测为这一轮回调的cycle low。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
2. March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	*DOWN
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	03/15 S
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	*DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

pig2006

sf

pig2006

Thanks!

everest001

windy

pig2006

jamesmith

page 1

lite1067

回复 1# Cobra


谢老大。

周四周五反弹前，就有不少人下看1220-1225. 一般这种情况下，回测会稍微延迟一下(因为很多抢跑的人会设buy-order above that target)然后overshoot (trigger those new buy's stop loss)... 哈哈， pure speculations ah..

heaven

X中国陆军

heaven

slcgh

IMeMyself

re, thanks

skipjack

Thanks

Ed02

3x

c3456

silicon_beaver

Woo. but Bull hates endless down.

wnd4

thanks

newegg

Truely Thanks !!!

mayoutu

多谢蛇大，FAZ有救了