03/21/2011 大盘回顾（Head and Shoulders Bottom?）

Cobra · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:32 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	5 of 5 are SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term		6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
03/16-03/21	03/19 : 03/21		Next pivot date: 03/21

BULLISH	09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
BEARISH	4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts	The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	02/24 S	N/A	Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model			Short if SPY tomorrow open > tomorrow close. The stop loss is 1.9ATR(10).
Short-term	*UP?	*03/07 High	I hold trapped short position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM BREAKOUT, TARGET $134.44

两点说明：

Short-term trend is up，但没有确认。我猜可能还有涨。
Short-term我会追高(buy on strength only)，但是不会buy dip。中期依然是downtrend，维持会有lower low的判断。

我猜可能还有涨的理由有两个：

Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout。我个人不太相信这个target，不过也不能否认这可能是个很bullish的pattern。

今天还有两个地方提醒一下：

03/16提到的long setup，今天有好几个已经满足了close long的条件了。

今天有个short setup，看着好像成功率很高，不过我个人不是很喜欢这个setup。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

c3456 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:37 PM

c3456 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:38 PM

c3456 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:38 PM

sf s f

c3456 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:38 PM

c3456 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:39 PM

c3456 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:39 PM

woodbenben · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:39 PM

whzdf · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:41 PM

michaelzhang · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:42 PM

Ed02 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:43 PM

yubo · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:43 PM

谢谢

wayout · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:45 PM

可惜没抓住今天的好形势。 buy on strength only tomorrow

面瓜 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:46 PM

lower low是指低于125吗？

tang1688 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:46 PM

phph · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:46 PM

TARGET $134.44的话，就是马上visit previous high.

lower low 就没用了吧。

如果TARGET $131.的话，lower low还有戏。

hfang01 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:47 PM

wxtrader001 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:48 PM

谢谢，Cobra老大的报告看着有理有据，佩服

源济 · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:48 PM

jamesmith · 发表于 2011-3-21 04:48 PM

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[技术分析] 03/21/2011 大盘回顾（Head and Shoulders Bottom?）