03/24/2011 大盘回顾 （6 vs 6）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Short-term UP *03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight. The short position was stopped out with loss.

SHORT-TERM: BEARS ARE NOT OVER YET

今天涨得不错，可惜根据昨天的说法，n vs n rule，6 vs 6，牛牛已经输了，除非明天大涨特涨，否则根据定义，这还是个sellable bounce，03/16的low还是要去的。

 

短期操作，我会buy the very first dip，理由还是惯性定律，这么强的上升动能，第一次回调失败的机率很高，而熊熊最可能的希望是three push up，形成Double Top。

 

今天有两个warning，可能并不说明什么，info only。

VIX在4天内跌了30%，自2000年以来，类似情况一共只有4次，一周内都是跌的，还挺厉害。

 

我在今天的intraday comment已经提了，OEX put call ratio很高，这不是啥好兆头，因为从历史看，OEX option traders是很准的。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
2. March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	UP	ChiOsc is way too high.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	03/23 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

shcece

qianshui

thanks!

当时惘然

first page. thank you.

天天向上

沙发!

天天向上

"短期操作，我会buy the very first dip，理由还是惯性定律，这么强的上升动能，第一次回调失败的机率很高" -- 操作性很高, 谢谢!!!

源济

nokia

whzdf

surya

Thanks!

Jinan90

再次 Top10

jamesmith

jamesmith

果断拿走第13排位置

yubo

thx

can2000

so early today, thanks

michaelzhang

leftright

沉默是金

劳苦功高

oldfox

jpm

Thanks.

It all depends what strike price for these OEX puts were.  Could these OEX puts just for hedge of the long positions? According to zerohedge, 2 macro funds long emini sp today in a huge bet on QE3.