秋月说股事 （指数／个股）（非喜勿入,请勿跟与秋月提及的个股和指数无关的帖子）

秋之皓月

单整一贴


My thoughts on this morning's Fed action: things are a lot worst than we initial thought: the credit crisis, Fed injected 100B in Apr, now 150B is needed for May, that is 50% worse than it was in Apr.

And Gap up is a bad move here... indices already have too many gap unfilled below, any gap here can be read as exhausting gap...

****************************

hehe:

bearish engulfing

hanging man

dark cloud cover

shooting star

peak doji

top abandon baby

ALL REQUIRE A GAP UP OPEN...
[ 本帖最后由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-4 05:15 编辑 ]

秋之皓月

哈哈。。。 骗来了一颗红钻。。。

Well, we now have shooting starS on DJI/SPX, dark cloud coverS on COMPQ/QQQQ/DIA/SPY, and hammer on $VIX. Let’s see if we are getting that spike on $CPCE tonight after 7:00pm…

5/2/2008 10:42:01 AM 

秋之皓月

一周一股 SEPT 50P ENTRY @ $4.5/4.6
[ 本帖最后由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-2 14:27 编辑 ]

随便看看

在对以前，你已经错了几个星期，而你当时说的2000点大阴棒已经变成+800点的中阳棒了

还有，你得不断坚持看空才行，不要像上次的1000点大阳棒突然转看跌那样，如果你坚持1000点大阳棒，现在你就差不多达到目的了。

哈哈， 会不会过几天改为看多呢?

xiaobailong

原帖由 随便看看 于 2008-5-2 14:33 发表 在对以前，你已经错了几个星期，而你当时说的2000点大阴棒已经变成+800点的中阳棒了还有，你得不断坚持看空才行，不要像上次的1000点大阳棒突然转看跌那样，如果你坚持1000点大阳棒，现在你就差不多达到目的了。哈哈 ...

对错先不说，秋月这个主题里面的两个帖子里面的分析是超赞的。 

short JPM俺跟一个，已经下了单子，等待执行。

做股票总有对有错的嘛，也别要求太严格啦。

随便看看

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-2 14:37 发表 对错先不说，秋月这个主题里面的两个帖子里面的分析是超赞的。 short JPM俺跟一个，已经下了单子，等待执行。做股票总有对有错的嘛，也别要求太严格啦。

那些星呀之类的形态是最近才有的还是他喊-2000时就有的？他当时的依据是什么？如果当时的依据不准为什么肯定现在的就准？

xiaobailong

原帖由 随便看看 于 2008-5-2 14:48 发表 那些星呀之类的形态是最近才有的还是他喊-2000时就有的？他当时的依据是什么？如果当时的依据不准为什么肯定现在的就准？

咱们到我那个小白股市入门里面讨论吧，秋月不喜欢人家在这个主题下面跟贴呢。

maserati

原帖由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-2 13:25 发表 一周一股 SEPT 50P ENTRY @ $4.5/4.6

 

Sept ITM Put? That's not your style, Qiu laoda.

xiaobailong

请大家在下面一个主题里面讨论。

秋月说股事的讨论贴

xssl

原帖由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-2 14:25 发表 一周一股 SEPT 50P ENTRY @ $4.5/4.6

顶秋大的好图！能不能也给个stop price？

再请小白龙把跟贴都删了吧，上面明确讲了“请勿跟贴”。

xiaobailong

原帖由 xssl 于 2008-5-2 15:03 发表 顶秋大的好图！能不能也给个stop price？再请小白龙把跟贴都删了吧，上面明确讲了“请勿跟贴”。

删贴也没有必要吧，请大家以后都在下面一个主题里面讨论。

秋月说股事的讨论贴

秋之皓月

敌人真的很狡猾， 大概只有COMPQ/QQQQ说了真话。。。

SPY/SPX, DIA/DJI是相反的CANDLE...

At mkt close: Indices reading are:

Daily bearish/weekly bullish;

$VIX reading is daily bearish; but weekly bullish, it touched a double support zone today.

后面的两周会是惊涛骇浪！！ 因为CALL太多， 大肥。。。

４月的OE前两周， AAPL, APR160C：$4.60>$0.10>$2.50...最后这个$2.5出现在OE当天的盘中

5/2/2008 1:57:12 PM [ 本帖最后由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-2 17:58 编辑 ]

短期空袭警报

所有熊熊的希望全在您这儿了，青蛙是不知道怎末对冲的。您一定要挺住啊。

能不能公布一下您的POSITION？

 

 

原帖由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-2 17:30 发表 敌人真的很狡猾， 大概只有COMPQ/QQQQ说了真话。。。SPY/SPX, DIA/DJI是相反的CANDLE... At mkt close: Indices reading are: Daily bearish/weekly bullish; $VIX reading is daily bearish; but weekly bu ...

秋之皓月

http://finance.yahoo.com/family- ... he-U.S.-Is-So-Cheap

Haha... US Gas price is so cheap! only No. 45th out of 155 countries....

You don't like that?? then move to Venezuela, only $.12 per gallon

so, oil, commodities, gold, food to da moon...

All the rest equities to the hell....


"Despite daily headlines bemoaning record gas prices, the U.S. is actually one of the cheaper places to fill up in the world.

Out of 155 countries surveyed, U.S. gas prices were the 45th cheapest, according to a recent study from AIRINC, a research firm that tracks cost of living data. The difference is staggering.

As of late March, U.S. gas prices averaged $3.45 a gallon. That compares to over $8 a gallon across much of Europe." [ 本帖最后由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-3 12:35 编辑 ]

秋之皓月

Many asked about the black candle and hollow red candles:

The meaning behind the black candle:

A news or some other unexpected event triggered a sudden gap up at mkt open, many DT jumped in to buy (including some panic short covering) in the fear of miss the break out or possible rally extension, but during the day, constant selling kicked in after the initial excitement fades, and early morning DT's daily stop order got triggered and stopped out... some trapped... but the selling is not stop and most time you will see the lowest spot shows up 1 hours before the mkt close and there will be some last minute buying to push it up and still make the close above the previous day close, this last minute buying are mostly triggered by the DT short covering and profit taking not because of the new long buying, because most morning gap chase long buying power was stopped out or trapped in there after the early morning actions after open.

So, sometime I call this kind of action as "DT killer action", since most DT traders only has one set of fund to do trading, if one is a little bit hesitation in using of the stop... he will be trapped and force to cut and bail sooner or later... I also read this action as a confidence fading action in bulls... if this kind of candle happened near a major resistance zone after a sizeable bull rally, then the chance to see a big correction will be very high, sometime it will turn into a major mkt top...

Similar, action to those hollow red gap down candle... those are the sign of bear dead...

Example: DRYS * QQQQ

[ 本帖最后由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-3 16:10 编辑 ]

秋之皓月

Haha... MSFT sucks... bid up YHOO on Friday, and cancel deal on Sat.

haha... those chased YHOO doomed...

Great! black candle on QQQQ Friday suck in morning chasers... and Gap down on Monday morning might suck all went long on Wed/Thursday...

I love this... this is another bomb like BSC did over the weekend... and this time is not on the weak Finance sector, but on the "strong" Tech sector....

短期空袭警报

不得不跟你一个贴，你现在的各种分析简直臭的一摊糊涂。YHOO 一直在$28附近徘徊本身就表明市场对此收购成功持怀疑态度。MSFT的出价是$34，就算MSFT真的放弃了，YHOO能跌到那去？？

原帖由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-3 23:33 发表 Haha... MSFT sucks... bid up YHOO on Friday, and cancel deal on Sat. haha... those chased YHOO doomed... Great! black candle on QQQQ Friday suck in morning chasers... and Gap down on Monday morni ...

秋之皓月

$20 吧。。。 俺在$18.XX 买过YHOO...

前面一周里有很多人EMAIL问YHOO...

俺就一标准答案： 不碰。。。

听不听。。。 那就不知道了。。。

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-3 23:51 发表 不得不跟你一个贴，你现在的各种分析简直臭的一摊糊涂。YHOO 一直在$28附近徘徊本身就表明市场对此收购成功持怀疑态度。MSFT的出价是$34，就算MSFT真的放弃了，YHOO能跌到那去？？

[ 本帖最后由 秋之皓月 于 2008-5-4 00:08 编辑 ]

LDK

玩过yhoo, 阿里巴巴那次, 感觉yahoo就是loser, 如果被打压, 会死很长时间. 只是感觉.

现在盼着csco miss. 呵呵.

jeeplover

这个我同意秋月. yhoo 的股价一夜间从18 涨到了 28 就是因为收购, 不知道现在会不会掉回去. 而且 yahoo 的er比 goog 要高, 业绩比goog  差, does not make sense.

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-3 23:51 发表 不得不跟你一个贴，你现在的各种分析简直臭的一摊糊涂。YHOO 一直在$28附近徘徊本身就表明市场对此收购成功持怀疑态度。MSFT的出价是$34，就算MSFT真的放弃了，YHOO能跌到那去？？