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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
02/24 S |
N/A |
Short is for aggressive traders only. |
ST Model |
03/22 S |
1.9*ATR(10) |
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Short-term |
UP |
03/23 Low |
I hold long position over the weekend. |
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SHORT-TERM: EXPECT SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD
三点说明:
- 下周可能会有pullback,不过在pullback之前至少还有一冲。
- 还是预期new high之前,03/16 lows是要先去的。对于这一点,我现在没有周五intraday comment的时候那么有信心,但是熊熊应该还是有机会的。
- 短期交易策略是buy dip。
先说说为什么还有一冲,主要理由是RSI还缺negative divergence。关于这一点,我论证过很多次了,所以就不再把过去的图摆出来了。道理很简单,RSI表示momentum,RSI negative divergence表示momentum减弱,也只有momentum开始减弱了,price才可能pullback,这就跟汽车要倒车之前,需要先减速,停下来,然后才能倒退一样。当然,这里假设是在地球上,我们火星物体就不是这么运动的。
为什么预期下周会有pullback?除了seasonality月底都不好以外,VIX 18% below MA(10), short at Friday’s close and cover 1 day and 5 days later since year 2000,我知道,包括我自己在内,实在实在实在难以想像这个市场居然会跌,但是毕竟80%到90%的几率还是应该重视的,否则,老实说,还要TA干啥?
关于retest of 03/16 lows,我的主要论据是还没有visible NYMO positive divergence,辅助论据是6 vs 7,牛牛走得比熊熊少,因此是sellable bounce。关于这个6 vs 7,可能有误,应该是9 vs 9,因此牛牛至少还有2天的机会证明自己。也因此开篇我说了,现在没有周五intraday comment的时候那么有信心,但是熊熊应该还是有机会的。
下面的图论证了n vs n看底部的有效性,因为有同学说这东东是2008年熊市的结论(See 8.0.3a Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change – 2008)。嗯,那我们就看看2009年牛市以来的几次底部的反弹是怎么样的。不是100%工作,但是不可否认,n vs n大部份情况下还是有用的,是吧?OK,那我们就看看牛牛下周二能否break above SPX 1332吧。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS
Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
- Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.
See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.
For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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