03/30/2011 大盘回顾 （More Push Up Ahead?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY? mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/07-04/11 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/04-04/13

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. 03/25 Market Recap: VIX 18% below MA(10) is bearish in 5 days. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Unofficial buy signal trigged, the model could be in buy mode now. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) *Stopped out of short position with loss. No long position entered yet. *Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this model soon. Short-term UP 03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: MORE PUSH UP AHEAD

两点说明：

1. 可能明天会有pullback，不确定，比较确定的是应该还没有涨完，所以操作上我会at least buy the very first pullback。
2. 维持03/25 Market Recap的判断，03/16 lows最终会去的，不过已经不敢说是否一定是在new high前去了。

先说没有涨完的理由。主要是今天的上涨幅度比较大，因此对于SPX，3 push up pattern肯定是不成立了，还需要一次pullback后测试前高的过程，才有可能会有比较大的pullback。而为什么说明天可能会有pullback呢？因为对于QQQ，已经完成了典型的3 push up，所以明天pullback的可能比较大，这会拖累SPX。

 

另一个没有涨完的理由是，INDU又higher high了。这个，顺便说，也是我现在不敢说new high前先去测试03/16 lows的理由，因为INDU只要稍稍加点力就new high了，如果这样的话，SPX可能会先new high。

 

下面的图是明天可能会pullback的理由，不是很充分，但是有趣，所以了解一下吧。一般规律，上涨的动能会越来越弱的。从图上看，03/16到03/21的上升波，3天走了51点，03/23到03/25的上升波，3天走了35点，35 / 51 = 0.68，03/29到03/30的上升波，2天走了26点，26 / 35 = 0.74，已经超过前一次0.68的比例了，所以我猜，至少今天high已经in了，既使明天长，可能也不会higher high了。

 

关于维持03/16 lows最终会去的判断，主要理由还是9 down vs 10 up，牛牛输了，因此这应该还是个sellable bounce，换句话说就是03/16 low不是THE BOTTOM。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
2. Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.

See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	DOWN	*NAADV MA(10) is way too high.
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP	TOADV MA(10) is way too high.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	*03/30 S
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

jamesmith

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jamesmith

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回复 Cobra 的帖子

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shore up

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Bigmouth

1st page?

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Thanks &

Bigmouth

胡同儿串子

新版的主页很好，很有规模了

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