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楼主: oldfrog

[灌水] tomorrow is a very important day.

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-8 11:55 PM | 显示全部楼层


这口水井好就好在题目,天天有效。

SPX may go touch the lower bound of current yp channel.  should be a good entry for swing or DT long, risk reward wise.  so many bears on board, we need pay attention to not only the massive resistance over head, but the mine filled support zone underneath also.
feels like tomorrow is the OE day, hehe,  QQQQ and SPY are very close to max pain already.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-9 09:39 AM | 显示全部楼层
bought DDM 77.35, see if the gap fill?

frog feeling is today will hold up.

the biggest downer so far are, guess what?

energy and basic materials.


WUWU, 看人家QQQQ的空都补完了。唉,why I chose the stupid DOW.
[ 本帖最后由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-9 11:20 编辑 ]
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发表于 2008-5-9 09:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
你老这个题目好,我总忍不住要看 we are getting into real consolidation period.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 01:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
Stupid me, AIG is part of DOW index.  hehe.  tuition paid.  lesson learned.

原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-9 10:39 发表 bought DDM 77.35, see if the gap fill? frog feeling is today will hold up. the biggest downer so far are, guess what? energy and basic materials. WUWU, 看人家QQQQ的空都补完了。唉,why I ...
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 02:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
Indeed tommorrow is very important.  because the CPCE thing won't spike for sure tomorrow. hehe.


原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-9 22:03 发表 你老这个题目好,我总忍不住要看 we are getting into real consolidation period.
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发表于 2008-5-10 03:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-9 00:55 发表 这口水井好就好在题目,天天有效。 SPX may go touch the lower bound of current yp channel.  should be a good entry for swing or DT long, risk reward wise.  so many bears on board, we need ...

请问,这标题是不是女秘书帮你取的?
我发现你有女秘后,就不一样那。
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 04:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
哪里哪里
原帖由 百万宝贝 于 2008-5-10 16:23 发表 请问,这标题是不是女秘书帮你取的?我发现你有女秘后,就不一样那。
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-10 04:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
Just for fun, did some searching and found out a quarter of Friday's DOW lost was due to AIG itself

Dow is price weighted. And the summation of all 30 ticker's closing price is $1579, dow was down ruffly .94%, that means all together Dow30 lost about $15, and AIG itself contributed $4

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-11 09:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
gold's price for last 30 years. If history repeat itself. It would be a short when it get to 1000 again.

谨以此贴献给持续买金子的同学。
[ 本帖最后由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-11 22:37 编辑 ]
monthly_dollar.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 03:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
http://hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=11784

some brothers complained about the text was too long. to make it easy

overconfidence effect: QZHY
escalantion of committment:  oldfrog average down on DUG
confirmation bias:  to the dead bulls of January and dead bears of April.

tomorrow is a very important day, because today is over.
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发表于 2008-5-12 03:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
:(200607):
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发表于 2008-5-12 03:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 05:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
nobody think today is quite bullish?  indexes bounced off major support, both price and volume more than cancel out the down of Friday.  Also, today's up is enjoyed throughout the market with allmost all sectors up.   
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发表于 2008-5-12 05:44 PM | 显示全部楼层
Volume is not that impressive. Still there is the 200MA ceiling over it. Continues to ignore some bad news. Seems it has priced in an improved retail number tomorrow.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-12 05:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
both volume and price move are not impressive by any means, but they both overcomed the Friday's loss.

原帖由 Kami 于 2008-5-12 18:44 发表 Volume is not that impressive. Still there is the 200MA ceiling over it. Continues to ignore some bad news. Seems it has priced in an improved retail number tomorrow.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-14 10:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
very interesting day. in the morning bulls are all excited and bears was trying to find all possible reasonings to stay alive. And just opposite in the afternoon. very exciting process, but looking back, all major indexes closing price barely moved for last three days. Maybe it is the OE effect this time. All indexes etf very much in the stiking distance of max pain. QQQQ was and still has the biggest difference to max pain, maybe that is why it fell most today.

If that is true, then tomorrow and the day after tomorrow won't be important then, because we will finish on the max pain this month. As Lao Lian predicted, nothing days.

I will do DT for rest of the week with that in mind. hopefully the theroy won't let me down.

For next week, I am still bullish so far. Because I think today could be a major accumulation day if it is not the Wednesday of OE week.

Disclaimer, this comments contains strong bullish bias, not suitable for bear viewers.


[ 本帖最后由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-14 23:13 编辑 ]
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发表于 2008-5-14 10:55 PM | 显示全部楼层

管它升还是降,喝茶 >

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-14 10:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
hmmm, 看来下面要轮到茶叶价格暴涨了,周末先去囤积点。
原帖由 NaturalLaw 于 2008-5-14 23:55 发表
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发表于 2008-5-14 11:53 PM | 显示全部楼层

原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-14 23:01 发表 very interesting day. in the morning bulls are all excited and bears was trying to find all possible reasonings to stay alive. And just opposite in the afternoon. very exciting process, but look ...

 

Agree! Feel nervous while waiting. 就像书院说的,涨牛跌熊

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发表于 2008-5-15 02:08 AM | 显示全部楼层



原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-14 23:01 发表 very interesting day. in the morning bulls are all excited and bears was trying to find all possible reasonings to stay alive. And just opposite in the afternoon. very exciting process, but look ...
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