苹果专题

dividend_growth

看好苹果，原因：

1）Smartphone市场还会每年50％的涨好一阵子，iPhone还是比Android做得好，苹果维持现在的market share没问题。无论是消费者还是企业调查，iPhone的欢迎程度都远远高于Android。

2）Smartphone是一个比当年PC更大的商机，这个Apps大有代替传统软件的趋势，没有用过apps的人建议用用，很好玩的。

3）苹果这个季度一大强项是Mac。苹果在这个市场只占10％左右，现在势头很猛，不但产品精美可靠，价钱也慢慢可以和Dell之类竞争了。俺最近买了个代SSD的Macbook Air，用起来非常爽，而价格只比类似的Dell贵100块左右。但无论是质量，造型，还有服务远远好于Dell。

4）iPad2在店里根本买不到，除非你早上4点钟去排队。iPad2做的很精美，比那些Samsung Galaxy，Motorola Xoom好多了，而且价格还便宜！

5）中国现在对苹果产品狂热了，iPad2卖几万元，电话非iPhone 4不要！那些在中国卖疯了的产品，比如德国宝马，美国Coach，法国Louis Vuitton，无一不是大牛股。Apple上两个季度在中国的营业额是$5B，比去年同期增长255％，占公司全部的10％。按照现在中国人财富的增加速度，中国将很快苹果发展的新热点。

6）由于Apple越来越大，在supply chain上有明显的竞争优势。它的产品种类少，但都很成功，所以量特别大，能从供应商那里拿到最好的价格。这也解释了为什么iPad2比Xoom便宜，利润还高多了。以后Apple不但在质量和声誉上有优势，连价格上都能竞争了。

7）别以为Steve Jobs走了苹果就会跌，上次Jobs被赶走后，AAPL两年内涨了10倍！现在苹果太大，俺不期望十倍，就是一倍，甚至50％都够了。

8）奇怪的是，Apple的valuation一点不高：
Trailing P/E = 16.68
Forward P/E = 12
P/Cash Flow = 12
苹果手上还有65.767 billion的现金，占了市值20.6％
再看苹果过去一年的增长率，都是80％，90％左右。就算将来不会那么快了，15－20％下面几年可以说是轻而易举，那么现在的估价就是太便宜了！

dividend_growth

苹果这次ER基本上证明了俺的猜测：

NDX降低AAPL的权重是个大阴谋，那些大鳄们知道苹果前景无量，所以逼着Index Funds出货，以便逢低进货。

当时惘然

回复 dividend_growth 的帖子

第7点，不太同意。 让人以为Jobs走了，股票还能暴涨似的。
强势领导人的溢价力是不可忽略的。

补充一点是苹果的专门店体系远比其他竞争对手领先10 - 20年，或者说没有竞争对手！
自己的销售网络和渠道，连零售的利润都不留给外人，这点很可畏！

ppteam

1."这个Apps大有代替传统软件的趋势"
impossible. It's too obvious to even have a discussion.

2. "苹果这个季度一大强项是Mac"
so what? yes, Mac can draw lots of retail customers. But we all know the real money is on corp customers side. Mac got nothing in this area, well, except in Apple.

3. "iPad2在店里根本买不到，除非你早上4点钟去排队。iPad2做的很精美，比那些Samsung Galaxy，Motorola Xoom好多了，而且价格还便宜"

That's why most people are retarded. MacMall has at least 3-4 models IN STOCK.
It's No.1 in tablet. But it lacks lots of common features. For starters, how difficult for them to add a USB port?
价格还便宜? you are kidding, right?

4.中国现在对苹果产品狂热了
so what? 都是些喜欢跟在后面起哄的主。

AAPL stock has more upside room. but I can hardly agree with these FA.

ppteam

add one:

Apple = expensive + close
Google and others = Free + Open

I think in my life time i will see 'free+open' beats 'expensive+close' eventually.

当时惘然

顺便说一句，我没有苹果股票，也不打算买吗。
原因是一没那么钱，二是不认为323B的股票能在两年有50%的涨幅。

dividend_growth

PPT，要是CEO都成苹果粉丝后，小小IT Department还敢说No？

Windows也是先占consumer市场，再打进corporate里的。80年代初corporate里可是IBM mainframe的天下。

iPad2是缺些功能，但只有那些IT WSN才会拼命吹毛求疵的要这些features。赚钱的关键是把小孩，大妈，和文科CEO抓到手，而不是手中缺钱的IT WSN。

iPad2当然便宜，至少比Samsung和Motorola的要便宜。至于那些无名Android tablet，谁要啊？

还有就是apps，太方便了，而且便宜，甚至免费。这种发展再持续一两年，谁TMD还花$100+去买那些恐龙似的软件啊？俺很怀疑你有没有tablet，好好用过apps没有。

fufu

同意。我们公司里开始换mac了，Apple Mac的市场肯定还会长。

dividend_growth

还有一点是众多IT WSN打死也不明白的，就是：

Style和质量比features重要。这就是为什么Coach和LV卖得那么贵，人家就是大包小包得抢着买，而且都卖了几十年甚至几百年。相对你民工做得很实用，卖的价格是人家的十分之一甚至百分之一，也没几个人感兴趣！

ppteam

"要是CEO都成苹果粉丝后，小小IT Department还敢说No"
in business world, there's no concept of fans for any company. It's all about productivity. Many of my everyday use software doesn't run in Mac, not mention 90% of trading related software don't have Mac version.

"Windows也是先占consumer市场，再打进corporate里的"
that's because Office is a killer. Right now Apple doesn't have such software. Besides, Mac generally costs lot more than PC. I don't see Corp world would choose cool between cool and cost cutting.

"iPad2是缺些功能，但只有那些IT WSN才会拼命吹毛求疵的要这些features。赚钱的关键是把小孩，大妈，和文科CEO抓到手，而不是手中缺钱的IT WSN"

this is not 吹毛求疵. This is all about money. the reason ipad2 doesn't have memory expansion slot is because they can make more money from their 32GB/64GB models. Any PCs now have USB or other ports, do you think PC customers are only '手中缺钱的IT WSN', and '小孩，大妈，和文科CEO' don't use PC? LOL

"iPad2当然便宜，至少比Samsung和Motorola的要便宜"
OK, then BMW is also cheap

"apps，太方便了，而且便宜，甚至免费"
Are you kidding me? Many of apps in Apple appstore are fee based. have you ever visited Apple online APPstore?

"俺很怀疑你有没有tablet，好好用过apps没有。"
I have 3 tablets: 2 ipad2, one junk.

"谁TMD还花$100+去买那些恐龙似的软件啊"
I mean, in PC world, 谁TMD还去买软件？ 我TM全用盗版和FREE的.

ctcld

苹果是好公司，但新的增长点不会有IPOT，IPHONE，IPAD那样的新鲜。苹果有苹果的滋味，这是其他水果代替不了了，但也代替不了其它水果。从NAZ100 降低苹果的重量来看，
苹果的高涨期已经过了。

dividend_growth

“that's because Office is a killer. Right now Apple doesn't have such software. Besides, Mac generally costs lot more than PC. I don't see Corp world would choose cool between cool and cost cutting.”
Apps就是现在的killer。iPhone比普通手机和BB贵，还不是打入IT了？俺的帖子还没出来2小时，就有两同学说公司开始换Mac了。还有，俺老婆的公司也在慢慢淘汰Windows系统。

“OK, then BMW is also cheap”
看过BMW的股票吗？一个字：牛！

“in business world, there's no concept of fans for any company. It's all about productivity. Many of my everyday use software doesn't run in Mac, not mention 90% of trading related software don't have Mac version. ”
现在没有说明以后还有发展余地。上个季度整个PC市场萎缩了3％，而Mac却涨了28％，很快就会有人察觉的。

“I mean, in PC world, 谁TMD还去买软件？ 我TM全用盗版和FREE的.”
企业敢用盗版的？

“Are you kidding me? Many of apps in Apple appstore are fee based. have you ever visited Apple online APPstore?”
Apple比较贪婪，收钱的多，但总得来说很便宜。人们对花5块钱以下的东西无所谓，而绝大部分apps都是5块钱以下。Free的里也有很多好东西。Apps现在更新很快，过几天总有些惊喜出来，很好玩。

“I have 3 tablets: 2 ipad2, one junk.”
看来你是features为主的一派了。可惜你这类人是少数，不要让自己的偏见破坏你赚钱的机遇。

paleweak

I bet SONY is the future of APPL in 10 years.

ppteam

“that's because Office is a killer. Right now Apple doesn't have such software. Besides, Mac generally costs lot more than PC. I don't see Corp world would choose cool between cool and cost cutting.”
Apps就是现在的killer。iPhone比普通手机和BB贵，还不是打入IT了？俺的帖子还没出来2小时，就有两同学说公司开始换Mac了。还有，俺老婆的公司也在慢慢淘汰Windows系统。

iphone 打入IT? IT不是被你瞧不起吗？怎么又拿IT当回事？
但它真的打入IT了吗？对，有两同学说公司开始换Mac， 可能有200位同学说没换。

“OK, then BMW is also cheap”
看过BMW的股票吗？一个字：牛！

牛的多拉，数不过来！

“in business world, there's no concept of fans for any company. It's all about productivity. Many of my everyday use software doesn't run in Mac, not mention 90% of trading related software don't have Mac version. ”
现在没有说明以后还有发展余地。上个季度整个PC市场萎缩了3％，而Mac却涨了28％，很快就会有人察觉的。

市场SHARE越少，发展余地就越大。

“I mean, in PC world, 谁TMD还去买软件？ 我TM全用盗版和FREE的.”
企业敢用盗版的？

哦，APPLE SOFTWARE是FREE的？哈哈


“I have 3 tablets: 2 ipad2, one junk.”
看来你是features为主的一派了。可惜你这类人是少数，不要让自己的偏见破坏你赚钱的机遇。

不会；我一贯数钱数到手酸。

crasher

To say Apps is substitue to traditional computer software, you gotta be kidding.

Honestly, that angry bird is kind of annoying. I don't like it at all.

In terms of price competitiveness, we can only say ipad price is competitive. Most of its other products are mid to high end. ipad is a surprise since most industry people didn't realize that niche until Jobs did. So they can keep this advantage for a while, but not forever. Not to say that niche market may be expanded too fast too soon which may come back to haunt their bottom line.

Personally I like Apple products, but I'd stay away from picking my stocks among my favorites, especially that it doesn't pay any dividend.

dividend_growth

crasher 发表于 2011-4-22 17:24
To say Apps is substitue to traditional computer software, you gotta be kidding.

Honestly, that  ...

Apps不但在替代传统软件，而且能大大超过其过去的规模。

在这点PPT很有道理：苹果太贪婪，好的Apps都要钱，比如你不喜欢俺喜欢的Angry Birds，Android上free，苹果要$5块。
所以俺长远还是更看好Android和Google，但下面几年，苹果的势头强，还能涨不少。

这是俺最新对Google的评论：http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php ... 15&fromuid=3321

至于分红什么的，一个tech公司开始分红就是它走下坡路的象征！跟别的行业相反，tech公司分红是卖出的信号。

maldini

ppteam 发表于 2011-4-22 13:22
add one:

Apple = expensive + close

like linux vs windows?

xiaoyaoxl

等Jobs挂了，苹果就没潜力了

dividend_growth

xiaoyaoxl 发表于 2011-4-22 19:37
等Jobs挂了，苹果就没潜力了

这是个很大的陷阱，俺开头就提到过，上次Jobs被炒鱿鱼后，AAPL还牛了2年，股票翻了10倍。

xiaoyaoxl

dividend_growth 发表于 2011-4-22 19:42
这是个很大的陷阱，俺开头就提到过，上次Jobs被炒鱿鱼后，AAPL还牛了2年，股票翻了10倍。

可是没有Jobs苹果还不是走到了山穷水尽，把他老人家请回来又政变上位

苹果的东西闻起来就有一股Jobs的味道，要我说，当时起名咋搞个水果名，直接叫乔家专营就可以了...