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楼主: dividend_growth

[基础分析] 苹果专题

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-17 10:04 PM | 显示全部楼层


valentino 发表于 2011-7-17 18:15
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facebook绝不可小视

非死不可。
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发表于 2011-7-18 09:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-18 09:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
手上有很多果果的同学们可以ER前减轻一下仓位了。

明天这时候俺会跟大家分析ER到底怎样,再决定将来是buy dip还是sell rip。
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-19 08:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
苹果这次季度又好的出奇,俺可惜太保守了,不过盘后涨的并不多,估计会重复过去几年表现,就是盘整一段后继续北上。

苹果这次季度的亮点是:

- iPad和iPhone的销售增长还在加速,有一年历史的iPhone 4在那么多Android手机的竞争下还能卖这么好,可见其质量和品牌效应。

- 随着用户群的不断增加,下面出现的iCloud将会给果果带来更稳定的现金流,而iCloud会吸引更多的消费者和企业购买iPad/iPhone,促进良性循环。

- Sony Ericsson昨天报道因为日本地震的原因,拿不到部件造成亏损;相反苹果丝毫无损,可以看出苹果在供应链上的优势。

- 这次美中不足的一点是Mac销售增长从上季度的28%跌到14%,而且notebook比desktop卖的差!如果iPad对卖的很热的Mac都有这么大的影像,那么对其它PC生产商呢?

别看AAPL处于新高,股价400块,P/E实际上只有16,P/CF只有11,手上的净现金$76 billion。

俺的总结是,没有上苹果船的或者下来的,等几天后再买;有苹果的,好好拿稳了。

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发表于 2011-7-19 08:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
老大是保守些了,FA做得这么好,果果根本不用但心,不管mm怎么折腾,大趋势是改不了的。
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-19 10:04 PM | 显示全部楼层

CC里有更好的细节:

Peter Oppenheimer, CFO:

"Mac sales were particularly strong in our Asia-Pacific segment, where we experienced a 57% year-over-year increase in total Macs sold. "

"We are very excited to be launching Mac OS X Lion tomorrow (July 20)."

"iTunes revenue was up 36% year-over-year... With more than 225 million accounts, iTunes is the #1 music retailer in the world and customers have downloaded more than 15 billion songs today."

"iPhone sales momentum in the Asia-Pacific region was particularly robust with sales almost quadrupling year-over-year. "

"And by the end of the quarter, iPhone was available through 228 carriers in 105 countries, compared to 186 carriers in 90 countries as of the end of the March quarter."

"iPhone continues to be adopted as the standard across the enterprise with 91% of the Fortune 500 deployed or testing the device, up from 88% last quarter."

"57% of Global 500 companies are testing or deploying iPhone"

"We were able to increase production sequentially by over 4.5 million and we sold every iPad we can make."

"Today, 86% of the Fortune 500 are deploying or testing iPad within their enterprises, up from 75% last quarter."

"We are also seeing strong adoption internationally with 47% of Global 500 companies testing or deploying iPad."

"Combining iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, we reached over 222 million cumulative iOS device sales through the end of the June quarter."

"And about half of the Macs sold in our stores during the June quarter were to customers who had never owned a Mac before."

"We plan to open 30 new stores in the September quarter, including our first store in Hong Kong. That will bring us to a total of 40 store openings in fiscal 2011, including 28 new stores outside United States."

"Total company gross margin was 41.7%, which was 370 basis points higher than our guidance. This difference was a result of 3 approximately equal factors: a stronger mix of iPhone; lower commodity and other costs, which included some one-time items; and leverage on the higher revenue. "

--------------------------------

Q: iPad 2 sales and trends? Cannibalization in mac sales?
A: In terms of cannibalization, we do believe that some customers chose to purchase an iPad instead of the new Mac during the quarter, but we also believe that even more customers chose to purchase an iPad over Windows PC....As we stepped into July over the initial weeks to give you a more current update, we had been able to increase the supply further. And some SKUs and some countries are at a supply-demand balance

Q: China?
A: Year-over-year, it was up over 6x and the revenue was approximately $3.8 billion during the quarter and that makes the year-to-date numbers through the 3 quarters that we've had thus far around $8.8 billion.

Q: Gross Margin forecast 38% vs 42% this quarter?
A: We expect about 2/3 of this decline to be driven by the different product mix and we expect the remainder to be due to the loss of leverage on the lower sequential revenue.

Q: Main driver for iPhone sales?
A: We did add 42 new carriers and 15 new countries during the quarter...the real sequential improvement, frankly, was due to emerging and developed markets. China was a big part of it, Latin America driven by Brazil and Mexico was a big part of it, and the Middle East was a big part of it, which I think is great for Apple because these are markets that Apple historically has not been strong

Q: Activation numbers compared to Android?
A: 33 millions iOS sold this quarter

Q: Update on AppleTV?
A: We still call it a hobby here

Q: Diversify your contract manufacturing base?
A: In terms of supplier, I don't want to get into this in any detail, because I think this is one of those things for us that is the part of the magic and a part of the things that we feel that we have some secret spots there and I prefer not to share it.

Q: Where are you guys now in terms of manufacturing yields, have you walked further up the curve in terms of better utilization?
A: I don't want to give you a specific yield numbers, but as I've said earlier, the supply of iPad improved dramatically in the quarter

Q: iPhones sales growth is still accelerating, how do you sustain that?
A: I mentioned a few moments ago that the key driver in our sequential results on the iPhone are sequential improvement in unit, we're emerging and developing market.

Q: So those markets would have prepay, for example, lower purchasing power, indirect distribution. Are those things you are going to need to address through pricing and other means?
A: But in general, we are also playing in the prepaid market. We're not avoiding that market....And in terms of question on expanding channels and developing channels, we're obviously that is -- is on our list and with the 115,000 down now, we have some experience there.

Q: Why the sudden slowdown in Mac sales growth?
A: I think there are 3 things that are the primary factor...I think there were some cannibalization of new Mac by iPad. We shipped a record 9.2 billion iPads during the quarter, which is over 2x the number of Macs that we shipped....The second one is, I think, some customers have delayed purchase until Lion becomes available....But the third thing that I wouldn't discount is in the year ago quarter, we launched new MacBook Pro.

Q: Give us some feedback on what the growth trajectory?
A: Well, we don't predict unit sales.

Q: Is there anything you guys are doing differently as far as investing in the enterprise sales force?
A: We have a dual-prong strategy with enterprise on both the iPad and the iPhone. As we work with the carrier sales forces and they have very large ones because they're selling their services in enterprise and many of these enterprises want that one of our device is connected to it and so we train and provide quite a bit of help to the carrier person....And I think you'd really look at it fairly to be this far into the enterprise with a product that's only been shipping for 15 months in the case of iPad is absolutely incredible, because the enterprise is typically much more conservative and takes a long time to evaluate products....Also in a group that not thought of as enterprise like K-12, our K-12 generally takes a very long time for new product categories, but last quarter, we sold more iPads in K-12 than we did not.

Q: Can you just talk a little bit about your views on iCloud and just how you feel as a service it's going to drive more volumes to Mac and maybe just talk about what are your expectations on the halo effect across other iOS devices?
A: .....

Q: Do you feel like you have much of a lead over your competitors and the ability to instantly mirror content across different devices?
A: Well, we're certainly very, very good with the Internet, with telecommunications in delivering content. I think we have proven it in Mac for a decade first beginning with iTunes and now with the App Store and our payments to developers exceeding $2.5 billion.

Q: Are share gains important to Apple in this marketplace; and how do we reconcile where you participate in its market growth rate relative to the overall market?
A: Share gain is important anywhere we are going...In terms of playing in different price points, we do offer the 3GS, as an example today, which in the U.S. is $49 with a contract....And if you step that out into prepaid market, it really depends upon the VAT and duty and channel kind of uplifts as to what it is.....We will only make products that we're very proud of, as we've seen and as I'm reminded time and time again as I look at some of the China data is it's up to us to convince people to maybe spend a little more for a materially better experience of product.

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发表于 2011-7-19 11:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-7-20 06:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-21 03:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
iPhone 4的质量:

iPhone 4 survives fall from skydiver's pocket
http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mob ... .skydive/index.html
So it's easy to see why McKinney, a 37-year-old in Minnesota, would be "just absolutely shocked" when that same phone survived a fall from his pocket -- while he was skydiving from 13,500 feet.
He found the gadget, its glass surfaces shattered, on top of a building about a half-mile away from where he landed with his parachute.
Joe Johnson, a skydiving instructor, said he and a few friends watched from the ground below the two-story building as McKinney raised the phone above his head in triumph after he located it using a GPS tracking app.
Just to be funny, Johnson decided to call the busted phone.
He didn't expect the call to go through. But it did.
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