06/09/2011 Market Outlook (Better be up day tomorrow)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: MAY UP MORE BUT THE SELLING ISN’T OVER YET

没啥好说的，今天的反弹so far看着是Bear Flag的样子，因此还是维持任何反弹都是sell的说法。

 

明天牛熊各有一半的机会（Down 11 out of 21），不过最好是涨，否则见下图的统计（方便起见，我把自2000年起所有连跌5天或者以上的情况都放在一张图里了），9 out of 11 times（蓝圈圈，绿箭头代表今天的反弹），下面会继续跌。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
• 6.4.2c Extremely Low TICK MA3 Readings Watch: Too low, so rebound?
• *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: $ONE:$CPCE MA(5) too low, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
• 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP *Dark Cloud Cover while revisit the previous high, expect further pullback. UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN Volume surge, may be bottomed for at least short-term or close. USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

DayDayUp

jcs

oldfox

小财虫

小财虫

小财虫

skipjack

lwjnbtx

从今往后不管多忙也要好好读老蛇的报告，好好领会，然后开始做 INDEX

happyface

oda

svca

jy1029

报到报道

Forevergreen

lilitulip

thanks a lot

笨妞妞

报到

yao

thanks

MFTHT

多谢。

德州牛仔

temujin

thanks