06/10/2011 Market Outlook (Lower Low then Green the Next Week)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE GREEN THE NEXT WEEK BUT LIKELY LOWER LOW FIRST

下周有75%到81%的机会收绿，不过也有83%的机会先有lower low。

 

因此比较常见的走法如下图。当然，这个evil plan的准确度和我Intra-day Comment里经常有的evil plan是不能比的，只是wishful thinking，perfectly designed for Cobra Impulse System，呵呵。（注：只是示意哈，不是说底在1220。）

 

根据上面的evil plan，如果有long被套的，下周某一夜Futures和全世界通红，吓得彻夜难眠，第二天大低开后，又继续跌到胃痛的话，忍一忍吧，别割了。下面的图都是我看oversold的终极武器（老读者应该还记得，我不会轻易用oversold/overbought的标题吧？用的话是要100%准的，所以这些终极武器都不是一般的indicator），可以看到we’re almost there了，因此如果真有这么一次panic的话，多半是perfect的做至少临时牛牛的机会。

8.1.5 Normalized CPCE，太高了。

 

Indicators at Extremes，这个是说Sentimentrader的所有indicators里已经有非常大的一部分喊牛了。

 

T2116，太多的NYSE stocks 2 std dev below MA(40)了。

 

T2122，太多的stocks at 4 weeks low了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
• 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 83% chances a lower low the next week.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN *Hammer on retest of the previous low, so may be bottomed? EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN *Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN *Breakout down trend line then kiss the trend line good-bye? GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN *Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly *DOWN *Double Top breakdown, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

papertiger

大牛Steve

nanosensor

Ding!

大牛Steve

xiaochong

下周一要是跳空大底开的话，我就上，nnd，谁怕谁哈

MFTHT

多谢。辛苦了。

Cobra

xiaochong 发表于 2011-6-11 21:47
下周一要是跳空大底开的话，我就上，nnd，谁怕谁哈

就怕还是不痛不痒的跌，这个就比较讨厌了。

xiaochong

Cobra 发表于 2011-6-11 21:55
就怕还是不痛不痒的跌，这个就比较讨厌了。

是啊，搞得牛也不是，熊也不是，慢刀杀牛，熊也不敢上
不过周五spy放量了，似乎短期应该弹一弹？

surya

Ed02

skipjack

yaobooyao

falling sword 马上要插到木地板了。

Jinan90

xiaochong 发表于 2011-6-11 21:47
下周一要是跳空大底开的话，我就上，nnd，谁怕谁哈

我也是，准备抄个ＤＴ短线。挣了饭钱就准备快跑。这年头，手慢一点就被套了。

DayDayUp

ysc

oda

非常感谢

6th-Sense

Cobra 发表于 2011-6-11 21:55
就怕还是不痛不痒的跌，这个就比较讨厌了。

老大， 很久不来，一来就看到你画的图跟我一个投行朋友说的很很的像。

oldfox

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