06/14/2011 Market Outlook (Huge Gap Down Tomorrow or the 3rd Time is Charm?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: THE REST OF THE WEEK MIGHT NOT BE PLEASANT

是不是low was in了？还需要看几天，我个人暂时认为这只是个反弹，因此是sell的机会。主要理由有二：

• 06/03 Market Outlook的统计，weekly IWM Bearish Engulfing and SPX down 5 consecutive weeks，意味着下周不好玩。
• According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

关于明天早盘，下面的图很有趣。今天收盘最后一小时整的Bearish Engulfing意味着明天大低开的可能性很大。牛牛要问的问题是，是否第三次会不一样？

 

关于本周剩下的3天，我目前搜集到的证据是，顶多再涨一天，明天或者后天。

为什么说明天或者后天顶多涨一天？两个理由：

• NYADV太高，见下图，明天跌的机率大，顶多小涨。如果明天涨的话，后天会跌。

 

• ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < ISEE Equities Only Index AND ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index >= 100, 今天收盘short，hold until the very first down day, 自2006年ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index诞生以来，你有74%的机会。注意到winner平均是1.8天，所以可以理解成最迟后天要跌。

 

那么为啥说周五会跌呢？理由是Stock Trader’s Almanac, June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%. 另外，从下图看，好像最近几个周五都不怎么牛牛友好哈。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
• 
  

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
• 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 83% chances a lower low the next week.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN Hammer on retest of the previous low, so may be bottomed? EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN Breakout down trend line then kiss the trend line good-bye? GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

happyface

jiumentidu

happyface

my god

小兵

zxy600

thanks

coexist

oda

MFTHT

hunting

xiaochong

{:8_457:}{:8_457:}{:8_457:}{:8_457:}{:8_447:}{:8_447:}

西安

Billyboy

CoolMax

大牛Steve

6th-Sense

tomm is different.......

slowstep

oldfox

匪兵甲

谢班长！！  :(2   :(2

skipjack