06/15/2011 Market Outlook (Law of Inertia)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

多半还没有跌完，理由是地球，什么都要遵循惯性定律，前两次下跌幅度不如这次尚且都是2 leg down，因此可能性比较低，这次下跌没有2nd leg down就结束了，所以我还是认为，明天如果有反弹的话，是sell的机会。

 

有很多同学问3个Major Distribution Day以后会有大反弹的规律，我觉得按目前这样的跌下去，下面大反弹是迟早的事情，不过可能不能用3 Major Distribution Day来作为反弹的依据，因为很难说昨天是否算大反弹过了，这样今天就算是第一个Major Distribution Day了，按理下面还会有第二个。

 

今天还有个bottom sign，就是SPY volume surge了，不过很遗憾，除了volume可能不够大以外，SPX volume也没有confirm，所以我觉得可能还不够。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
• 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 83% chances a lower low the next week.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN Hammer on retest of the previous low, so may be bottomed? EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN Breakout down trend line then kiss the trend line good-bye? GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

jy1029

jy1029

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jy1029

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Cobra 发表于 2011-6-15 21:19
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

多半还没有跌完，理由是地球，什么都要遵循惯性定律，前两次 ...

老大你的第一个图如果对了。。。那就真牛大了！

Jinan90

老大看得太准，我们水牛很担心。

yaobooyao

6/9 , 6/14  , two perfect bull traps.  -  Lesson learnt for the dip buyers, wrong place and wrong time.

lilitulip

thanks a lot

abcStock

neo