06/16/2011 Market Outlook (Almost There)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND THEN THE 3RD PUSH DOWN THEN BIGGER REBOUND

昨天的报告解释了2 leg down，今天fulfill了，算是挣了点credit，说话可以稍微有点点点点底气了，chart pattern分析还是有效的。那么今天再仔细看看图哈，嗯，确切地说，应该是3 push down，因此可能还少最后一个push。当然，会先反弹，幅度大概不会小。

 

下面关于VIX closed above BB top for 2 consecutive days的统计，也是说反弹，然后掉下来，然后又反弹。

 

顺便说，我看到有同学提到VIX今天是重复03/16/2011，可能吧，我不完全否认，但为什么不是重复02/23/2011呢？同样根据惯性定律，两天close above BB top是非常strong的momentum，所以一般情况下跌回BB后还会有再次冲击BB的动作的哈。所以呢，基本上我认为虽然短期会有反弹，但是可能中期还没有到底。

 

明天如果不幸又跌的话，我觉得被套的牛牛就忍一忍吧，因为我看oversold的终极武器又almost there了。

0.3.1 Normalized CPC

 

0.3.2 Normalized CPCE

 

T2116

 

T2122

 

Net % of All Sentimentrader Indicators at Extremes

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

usamonkey

Forevergreen

{:8_442:}

Jinan90

dbshjb

{:8_492:}{:8_492:}
Thanks you!!!

cc2265

aimei

aimei

葡萄柚

但愿真的离底部不远了。

Fan8an

先顶再看

Jinan90

本周是真正的体会股市。每天都在冰火之间切换

葡萄柚

回复 Cobra 的帖子

老大辛苦了， 看你今天在英文论坛上说tired, 要注意身体啊！ 最好关盘后先稍微活动一下再写报告， 如果没时间运动的话， 屋前屋后走动一下也是好的。

cc2265

回复 Cobra 的帖子

Cobra, I saw high volume after hour and SPX report volume is higher than that of yesterday. Does this suggest huge up tomorrow? thank.

aimei

No meat cutting
Thanks

cartier

Bencat

oldfox

temujin

Thanks

nymd

oda