06/17/2011 Market Outlook (The rebound gets weaker and weaker)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

短期方向不明，暂时bearish biased，理由是统计和Seasonality下周都对牛牛不利：

• The statistics mentioned in 06/03 Market Outlook, weekly IWM Bearish Engulfing and SPX down 5 consecutive weeks means unpleasant the next week.
• According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

图形上讲，想来想去，又扔了一个硬币，还是觉得少了the 3rd push down (see 06/17 Trading Signals)。虽然the 3rd push，lower low不是必须的，因此可能周五的pullback就算是push down过了，不过如果仔细看最近SPX的几次反弹的话，这次恐怕是最弱的，所以可能倾向于the 3rd push down还没有完，是有一点点点点（此处省略100个点点）道理的。

 

其他没啥说的，Normalized CPCE可能创了历史，Net % of all Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme依然非常bullish，不过QQQ连跌7周，过去两次后面都不好玩，当然，总可以问，是否第三次会不一样？总之，下周继续反弹，我不会觉得很吃惊，但是，是否the low was in了，这个，还得走着瞧。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
• 06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all Sentimentrader’s  Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

belmonthill

vicvic

vicvic

面瓜

蛇总有点犹豫，酷大相当aggressive

c3456

c3456

大牛Steve

lilitulip

thank you

learner2009

福多多

maldini

6th-Sense

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jy1029

Thx

cartier

永恒罗马

sooners

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sfbayarea

Cobra 发表于 2011-6-18 18:04
SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

短期方向不明，暂时bearish biased，理由是统计和Seasonality下周都对 ...

我个人认为星期五的那个126就是最后一推， 虽然离OE还很早， 现在提出spy价格是很不靠谱。 但weekly spy 说可能要去131。 BTW 下周和front month 的spy 131 put OI 最多。

dbshjb

Thank you!

MFTHT

辛苦了，多谢。