油

6degrees

原帖由 QuickHand 于 2008-5-22 10:36 发表

 

真没注意，谢谢。

 

哪个是USO的ultrashort？

 

和oil有关的ETF：

USO

OIH

DIG

DUG

OIL

IEO

IEZ

PXJ

XES

XOP

DBO

DCR

UCR

 

 

QuickHand

还在发呆

原帖由 revolver 于 2008-5-22 09:30 发表 油的基本面是非常看好的，peak oil + flooded money suply。 “因为大石油公司核算成本的时候，仍然按照每桶$60计算，而忽视现在的市场价格在$100以上。”你是怎么知道的？照你这么说那些大石油公司都成了弱智了！ ...

 

对不起，我放屁熏到您了。

还在发呆

原帖由 ByStander 于 2008-5-22 10:06 发表 你所说的"理性价位"并不理性. EXXON在决定在非洲沿海开采石油时是按每桶不高于$6计算的.当时的油价是$15-20.按此推算,现在的油价应该高于150-200石油公司才有动力加大投资. OFFSHOER开采投资大,周期长.现在的石油公司 ...

 

说的很有道理。不过我觉得这正好说明大公司们不相信油价长期能坚持在现在这个价位。

百万宝贝

原帖由 6degrees 于 2008-5-22 10:54 发表 真没注意，谢谢。 哪个是USO的ultrashort？ 和oil有关的ETF： USO OIH DIG DUG OIL IEO IEZ PXJ XES XOP DBO DCR UCR

加拿大有一个，
HOD.to

QuickHand

原帖由 百万宝贝 于 2008-5-22 11:07 发表 加拿大有一个，HOD.to

revolver

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-22 11:01 发表   对不起，我放屁熏到您了。

 

It's nothing wrong to forecast a long term bear market for oil, but we need  to come from a reasonable basis. Given today's price of 130 and the momentum, a prediction of 60 simply doesn't sound right.

FigAFlower

The age of electric cars is coming. Nissan will launch electric cars as early as 2010. Bio-energy and hybird cars eventually will turn out to be just a dream. US govenment will give up their stupid bio-energy idea, then oil and commodity will crash.

还在发呆

原帖由 revolver 于 2008-5-22 12:48 发表   It's nothing wrong to forecast a long term bear market for oil, but we need  to come from a reasonable basis. Given today's price of 130 and the momentum, a predicti ...

 

yes, timing is the magic. i even see some analyses saying that oil will reach around $150 and i have to (some sort) agree with its arguments. but will $150 be sustainable? i didn't know when we will see $60. maybe we will not see it even in years. but if one believes in FA (as this post is based on), one has to admit that price will revert to the value eventually, though what's the value remains debatable. FA traders shall not chase the $20 upside when the price is already $130. He shall remain patient and build positions along the way when the price is attractive and profit at the end if his analysis proves to be sound.

 

i'm sorry if my post conflict with your trading style. it's good we have chance to make it clear.

Johnny2000

Basically says, corruption, legal corruption

ByStander

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-22 11:02 发表 说的很有道理。不过我觉得这正好说明大公司们不相信油价长期能坚持在现在这个价位。

呵呵,我本意是说$60的成本并不能保证油价会回归60. 就象当初$6的成本没让油价跌到$6一样. 你却给解释成大公司不相信油价长期能坚持现在价位.真是见仁见智,佩服佩服

QuickHand

QuickHand

德国、法国和英国优质原油每桶的成本为47.40美元，而同等价格的原油美国仅为43.10美元。

ByStander

原帖由 QuickHand 于 2008-5-23 09:17 发表 德国、法国和英国优质原油每桶的成本为47.40美元，而同等价格的原油美国仅为43.10美元。

这里说的不是现在的原油成本,而是大公司在决定是否开发新油田时用的估算成本.就是说,如果予估成本会超过$60就不开发

QuickHand

还在发呆

原帖由 ByStander 于 2008-5-23 09:07 发表 呵呵,我本意是说$60的成本并不能保证油价会回归60. 就象当初$6的成本没让油价跌到$6一样. 你却给解释成大公司不相信油价长期能坚持现在价位.真是见仁见智,佩服佩服

 

嘿嘿，承蒙夸奖。

revolver

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-22 14:14 发表   yes, timing is the magic. i even see some analyses saying that oil will reach around $150 and i have to (some sort) agree with its arguments. but will $150 be sustainable? i d ...

 

I feel you may have been too much focusing on industy level analysis. You may have done some detail study and read a lot of report/data on oil industry and drawn your conclusion from there. Theoretically, price tends to revert to mean if the fundamental condition is not changed (i.e. the value of the price mesurement tool - money, is stable). But we are living in an age with great wind of change in monetary and general economic condition. The base of the price, the fiat currencies is inflating and devaluing fastly. What we see today, is  neither an oil/gold bubble, nor a commodity bubble. It's actually a paper money bubble. That means, oil will never return to $60 level as of 2006/07, because the dollar will never have the same 2006/07's dollar value.

还在发呆

原帖由 revolver 于 2008-5-23 12:19 发表   I feel you may have been too much focusing on industy level analysis. You may have done some detail study and read a lot of report/data on oil industry and drawn your conclusion from there. ...

 

You raised a very interesting and challenging question. I would like to discuss more simply for intellectual fun.

 

If this is a currency bubble, then there must exist some method to measure how much the currency is inflated. I’ll propose a couple. More are welcome.

 

Certainly it’s not feasible to measure it by oil price. Because this will create a logic loop as we want to use this to justify oil price. Likewise, gold price, agriculture price are not feasible, either.

 

As oil is priced in dollar, using another currency is an option. Dollar dropped 15% versus Euro year over year, far less than the 100%+ increase on oil price.

 

Besides exchange rate, purchasing power is another option. Official inflation rate is merely 4% year over year, even smaller.

 

According to Fed’s money supply data, M1 actually decreased year over year, M2 increased 6% year over year, still cannot match the 100%+ gain.

 

I think one shouldn’t worry too much about more currency circulating around the world, if inflation is in check. The function of currency is trading. As long as real GDP grows, there will be more trading, and more trading asks for more currency.

 

Nonetheless, I admit that $60 may not be reached when considering inflation.