07/05/2011 Market Outlook (Firework)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:44 PM

SHORT-TERM: STILL A LITTLE OVERBOUGHT

两点说明：

今天的回调幅度不够，我的终极武器依然超买，因此回调还是只是个时间问题。
大盘今后的动作就是放焰火，涨上去然后掉下来，不过这个掉下来的动作，是买的机会。关于这一点，将在今天的intermediate-term session里说明。

我看overbought的两个终极武器，一个是T2122，另一个是NYMO，目前都还处于超买的状态，因此我还是认为回调只是个时间问题。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

今天很特别的地方是SPX body completely out of its BB top。这种情况我在11/05/2010 Market Recap里有过详细的讨论，为节省时间，图我就不重新画了，下面的图是11/05/2010时候的，只不过把最后一幅图换成现在的了。从下面的统计可以看到，此后都是个放焰火的过程，shoot high then fall to the ground，不过，这个fall to the ground，却是the 2nd buy opportunity：

Intermediate-term还有的涨，average 3.4% and could last on average 21 calendar days。
无一例外，大涨特涨之后，都会掉下来，又回到原来的起点。I’ve zoomed into all those cases，大家可以看到，这个掉回到起点的动作，都是buy opportunity。
从monthly chart看，除了2010年11月那一次以外（not shown on the chart），SPX body completely out of its BB top的那个月都是涨的。这是又一个证据证明我在07/01 Market Outlook里关于bullish July的推断。

SEASONALITY: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate	4 of 5 BUY	4 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term		4 of 6 OVERBOUGHT

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP	NAMO and NAADV MA(10) overbought.
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Bearish reversal bar plus TOADV MA(10) overbought, be careful. 1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought.
DAX & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
UUP & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $20.86.
GLD & Weekly	DOWN
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	UP
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

azzz · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:46 PM

北京哥哥 · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:48 PM

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:48 PM

acoust · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:48 PM

Floor

maldini · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:49 PM

小财虫 · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:53 PM

vanmark · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:54 PM

哈哈

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:55 PM

这次不再抢跑，等老大的发令枪“the 2nd buy opportunity”

cartier · 发表于 2011-7-5 07:57 PM

fara · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:05 PM

{:8_442:}{:8_442:}

lilitulip · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:10 PM

thanks a lot

oda · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:10 PM

umqasr · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:14 PM

Fan8an · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:18 PM

sooners · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:22 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

leftright · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:23 PM

Im168 · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:25 PM

Thanks!

ysc · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:28 PM

小兵 · 发表于 2011-7-5 08:28 PM

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[技术分析] 07/05/2011 Market Outlook (Firework)

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