这次是空前绝后第一次，几乎所有人全看跌。

jsl

原帖由 revolver 于 2008-6-1 03:33 发表     1. As the official CPI numbers announced by US government has so artificially low in the past several months, do you still believe that TIPS would provide any protection against infl ...

Correct me if I am wrong.

What he meant is that the dollar strength is not purely manipulation. As commercial paper outstanding high, smart people seemed to be not that pessimistic about the economy, thus stronger dollar probably have fundamental support behind it. I am not that familiar about the commercial paper market. I think we should look at both the terms and the outstanding number. Just like we need to see the margins and the sales of retailers at the same time.

jsl

revolver

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-1 03:25 发表 1。债券市场长期利率走强，是通货膨胀预期抬头的表现。在这种情况下钱会流入commodity或者海外市场，并不会留在美国国内股票市场。因为股票并不是规避通胀的有效工具。Inflation concern is a problem. Moving the m ...

 

If you don't see inflation is looming then don't bother on commodity. But it's the most important characteristic for commodity as the most effective inflation hedge. As an unique asset class commodity itself doesn't produce any additional value or return. The only benefit to holding it is to hedge the deteriorating fiat currency.

还在发呆

原帖由 revolver 于 2008-6-1 03:33 发表     1. As the official CPI numbers announced by US government has so artificially low in the past several months, do you still believe that TIPS would provide any protection against infl ...

 

TIPS spread can be distorted, treasure yield can be distorted as well. until i see hard data suggesting that one is distorted more severely than the other, i would rather use TIPS as a better gauge over treasure yield.

 

As for commercial paper data, http://federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=CP and select "weekly outstanding", you can choose either seasonally adjusted or not. The data may suggest that foreign money kept flowing into US financial market starting from April.

revolver

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-1 03:25 发表 1。债券市场长期利率走强，是通货膨胀预期抬头的表现。在这种情况下钱会流入commodity或者海外市场，并不会留在美国国内股票市场。因为股票并不是规避通胀的有效工具。Inflation concern is a problem. Moving the m ...

 

 

1。债券市场长期利率走强，是通货膨胀预期抬头的表现。在这种情况下钱会流入commodity或者海外市场，并不会留在美国国内股票市场。因为股票并不是规避通胀的有效工具。

Inflation concern is a problem. Moving the money into commodity and overseas is not a good idea either IMO. I see no good hedge in short term. Alfter pull back, I will continue to buy materials and energy.

Are you in US? Then you may not have seen what I see. I live in an Asian country. The government here is keeping the interest tight to fight inflation. The money has been flooding into the country. A lot of US-based banks here are now offering personal/commercial loans with competative rates aggressively.

 

 

2。美元走强基本上可以肯定是政府干预的结果，并不是外资蜂拥流入美国国内的表现。从这点来说，非但不会支撑股市，反而会导致一些外国投资者趁美元、美股双高的时候出逃。

$ is getting stronger for the following possible reasons: fed rate expectation, no collapsing the economy, deteriating overseas market due to the lagging effect.There may be bumps on the way, but it won't be much worse.

Currency in term of market trading value is a far more bigger market than bonds, which is in turn far more bigger than stock market. So you can not draw the inference like that USD/EUR exchange rate dropped because European money flows into US stock market. It also can not be due to fed rate expectation or the perception of no collapsing in the economy. All of these ideas are old news and can not cause any significant daily volatility in currency market.

revolver

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-1 03:43 发表 Correct me if I am wrong.What he meant is that the dollar strength is not purely manipulation. As commercial paper outstanding high, smart people seemed to be not that pessimistic about the economy, t ...

 

 

Commercial paper is simply short to medium term corporate debts. He is mentioning some foreign commerical paper numbers released by FED. But there is no full detail information in his original post.

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-6-1 03:43 发表 Correct me if I am wrong.What he meant is that the dollar strength is not purely manipulation. As commercial paper outstanding high, smart people seemed to be not that pessimistic about the economy, t ...

 

thx, i think i missed a couple logic links here.

 

the data may suggest that foreign money kept flowing into US market starting from April. When one wants to use foregin money to buy US dollar denominated asset (commercial paper is one among them), one has to sell the foregin money on Foregin Exchange, and buy US dollar, then using the US dollar to buy the asset. Needless to say, this activity will boost the exchange rate of US dollar. So the rising dollar might be driven by foregin money's appetite on US dollar denominated asset, which suggests that shrewd foregin investors (commercial paper investors are usually considered more shrewd than equity investors) may feel that US economy is promising.

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Are you in US? Then you may not have seen what I see. I live in an Asian country. The government here is keeping the interest tight to fight inflation. The money has been flooding into the country. A lot of US-based banks here are now offering personal/commercial loans with competative rates aggressively.

 

Then it's not US economy problem, and will have less effect on US equity market. It's harsh, but it's true.

 

Currency in term of market trading value is a far more bigger market than bonds, which is in turn far more bigger than stock market. So you can not draw the inference like that USD/EUR exchange rate dropped because European money flows into US stock market. It also can not be due to fed rate expectation or the perception of no collapsing in the economy. All of these ideas are old news and can not cause any significant daily volatility in currency market.

 

let's get back to basics, international money flow will change exchange rate and it is perceived as one important reason among others including interest rate and the country's economy growth. fact is fact, be it old or new, it's fact and cannot be argued away. 

revolver

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-6-1 03:47 发表   TIPS spread can be distorted, treasure yield can be distorted as well. until i see hard data suggesting that one is distorted more severely than the other, i would rather use& ...

 

You interpret that way? Foreign issuers of USD-denominated commercial debts carry the currency risk with theirselves, because the borrowed money will be changed to foreign currencies after the issuance to fund their local business and then changed back to USD in the future when it's due for repayment. Do you think the issuers are willing to bear this currency risk if they don't see a long term USD depreciation picture against their own local currencies?

 

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原帖由 revolver 于 2008-6-1 04:27 发表   You interpret that way? Foreign issuers of USD-denominated commercial debts carry the currency risk with theirselves, because the borrowed money will be changed to foreign currencies af ...

 

they are doing this, interpreting in this way is logical.

 

your logic is interesting, they are doing somehitng you feel stupid, so they are stupid, and I cannot root my argument on their stupid activity. 

 

it's time for me to go to bed. let's continue if i'm still interested tomorrow.  

revolver

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-6-1 04:11 发表   thx, i think i missed a couple logic links here.   the data may suggest that foreign money kept flowing into US market starting from April. When one wants to use foregin money to buy ...

 

I am afraid, that you have got it wrong. Foreign commercial paper means that the issuer is a foreign entity, not the owner.

 

Any way, only USD 5 billion increase in total outstanding amout for the past month, that kind of volume is actually negligible to currency market.

QuickHand

胡同0110

barren 最新一期刊登了一篇抨击操纵通胀数据的文章. 所谓的核心通胀简直就是一个笑话. 大家有必要知道法国大革命的背景.

jeeplover

鸟兄, 能不能给个link for that article??

原帖由 胡同0110 于 2008-6-1 12:36 发表 barren 最新一期刊登了一篇抨击操纵通胀数据的文章. 所谓的核心通胀简直就是一个笑话. 大家有必要知道法国大革命的背景.

jeeplover

你是说舆论已经开始为大跌做准备了??

原帖由 胡同0110 于 2008-6-1 12:36 发表 barren 最新一期刊登了一篇抨击操纵通胀数据的文章. 所谓的核心通胀简直就是一个笑话. 大家有必要知道法国大革命的背景.

胡同0110

barren的文章不是免费的, 我没法给你链接, 你在图书馆应该能看到.

jeeplover

那个期刊? 我可以查的到的.

原帖由 胡同0110 于 2008-6-1 12:50 发表 barren的文章不是免费的, 我没法给你链接, 你在图书馆应该能看到.

胡同0110

对不起我拼错了一个字母, barron

QuickHand

原帖由 胡同0110 于 2008-6-1 12:36 发表 barren 最新一期刊登了一篇抨击操纵通胀数据的文章. 所谓的核心通胀简直就是一个笑话. 大家有必要知道法国大革命的背景.

xiaobailong

原帖由 胡同0110 于 2008-6-1 12:36 发表 barren 最新一期刊登了一篇抨击操纵通胀数据的文章. 所谓的核心通胀简直就是一个笑话. 大家有必要知道法国大革命的背景.

法国大革命和现在有什么关系啊？