这次是空前绝后第一次，几乎所有人全看跌。

又忘了密码

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-6-1 13:32 发表 法国大革命和现在有什么关系啊？

俺也很好奇

4qw

Last year, my pos was 100% full, short. However, the return is only 5%, barely matching CD's. The problem (mistake) is when the index dropped 10%, the TA said a strong rebounce, then I hedged my pos...then suddenly I found I was at a 50% bull pos. The timing is similar right now. If you believe there is > 15% drop, don't follow TA, until the goal has been realized. Don't care if MMs pull another bull leg or not, stick to my target for a medium drop for now.

xiaobailong

原帖由 4qw 于 2008-6-1 13:53 发表 Last year, my pos was 100% full, short. However, the return is only 5%, barely matching CD's. The problem (mistake) is when the index dropped 10%, the TA said a strong rebounce, then I hedged my pos.. ...

问题在于，如果不看TA, 俺不知道会有多少drop呀。 要是涨了呢？

又忘了密码

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-6-1 13:58 发表 问题在于，如果不看TA, 俺不知道会有多少drop呀。 要是涨了呢？

我觉得他的意思是说，要是空早了，就捂着

jeeplover

法国大革命前, 自由, 博爱, 反对专政的思想漫布全法国, 为风起云涌的大革命奠定了坚定的思想和舆论基础.

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-6-1 13:32 发表 法国大革命和现在有什么关系啊？

4qw

原帖由 又忘了密码 于 2008-6-1 14:05 发表 我觉得他的意思是说，要是空早了，就捂着

I meant don't hedge your short pos too early. Time to take some risk for higher return. If the market is manipulated higher, I have to keep going until full.

xiaobailong

原帖由 jeeplover 于 2008-6-1 14:09 发表 法国大革命前, 自由, 博爱, 反对专政的思想漫布全法国, 为风起云涌的大革命奠定了坚定的思想和舆论基础.

啊？我主要想问的是， 这个和股市什么关系啊？

jeeplover

hehe, 精英集团已经开始质疑通货膨胀的数据了, 难道不是开始(为股市大跌??)做舆论准备了吗? 这应该是鸟兄的意思把.

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-6-1 14:22 发表 啊？我主要想问的是， 这个和股市什么关系啊？

又忘了密码

原帖由 4qw 于 2008-6-1 14:11 发表 I meant don't hedge your short pos too early. Time to take some risk for higher return. If the market is manipulated higher, I have to keep going until full.

就是说今天不跌明天跌，明天不跌后天跌，爬得越高跌得越狠，反正要大跌

biorjin

Hedge is like buying the insurance for your car? do you buy insurance 6 months after you drive the car or right after you own it.

 

Great risk management is always the key for successful trader. It is like everybody wanna get HR, and I do know many friends get HR one year then wiped out next. In my eyes, only way to constantly make money is to get base hit and take small loss.  If I happen to get a HR, great! But I only consider it as a gift.

 

Let's say what if this market has bottomed like 2003 (I mean IF) and you keep shorting, then what will happen?

 

For your record, this is actually one of the mistakes I made in 03 .  Betting BIG on one side of the market without hedge!!!

 

Just my 2 cents

   

 

原帖由 4qw 于 2008-6-1 14:11 发表 I meant don't hedge your short pos too early. Time to take some risk for higher return. If the market is manipulated higher, I have to keep going until full.

[ 本帖最后由 biorjin 于 2008-6-1 21:53 编辑 ]

大泡泡

原帖由 biorjin 于 2008-6-1 21:51 发表 Hedge is like buying the insurance for your car? do you buy insurance 6 months after you drive the car or right after you own it.   Great risk management is always the key for success ...

这个要学习。

revolver

原帖由 4qw 于 2008-6-1 14:11 发表 I meant don't hedge your short pos too early. Time to take some risk for higher return. If the market is manipulated higher, I have to keep going until full.

 

when you see the long term trend still going down but from TA analysis it has already reached an inflection point, you should close half of your position and keep another half open. You can close those short-term, unprotected and leveraged position and swap to long-term, protected and unleveled exposure.

 

Agree with you that to reap the long-term directional gains we have always to bear with some volatility.

LDK

it is important to hedge any individual stocks. But index itself is hedged quite well already.

 

I guess money management is more important. 分批分期, short at high, take profit quickly, AND alwasy have cash at hand.

4qw

Sounds good. For the frequent trading part, its better to have it done on a low commission broker. Any idea? For the past several years, my contibution to broker is about $4k-5k /yr. I'm trying to reduce my trading frequency a bit now until open another suitable account.