08/23/2011 Market Outlook (Rectangle Bottom)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

还有的涨，targeting SPX 1175ish (Fib 61.8% from 08/17 high to 08/19 low)，不过明天大涨的可能性不大，多半是小红或者小绿。

先证明SPX target，两个理由支持反弹至Fib 61.8%：

• Rectangle Bottom breakout, targeting Fib 61.8%。

 

• NYDNV:NYUPV > 35，如果不是the bottom的话，反弹多半会在Fib 61.8%处结束。下面的图是自2008年以来所有的例子。

 

为什么说明天大涨的可能性不大，多半是小红或者小绿？

• 今天SPX长了3%，但是却不是Major Accumulation Day，明天大约有70%的机会收红。

 

• TICK > 1,000，明天大涨的几率不大，如果不是收红的话。

 

• NYADV too high，明天有61%的机会收红。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

Please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/18 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term *UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken. EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold. XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken. IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE oversold.

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

RedCedar

Safar!!

RedCedar

Im168

Im168

RedCedar

floor  ?

RedCedar

Basement ?

RedCedar

reading....

balto

老蛇，我挺你。。。

美眉妹

{:8_492:}

Jinan90

dfw

当时惘然

Bencat

RedCedar

Thanks Cobra! After reading your report, I feel a bit better on which  i did not not adding long today.

nanosensor

D

Billyboy

Masktear

first pg

新低手

.....
wish higher open .... and i will sell something....  

stocks can not be held for several days, otherwise trapped, too weird

oda