09/28/2011 Market Outlook (Lower low ahead but a tradable bottom may be close)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: MORE LIKELY THE LOW WASN’T IN YET

今天有很多extreme，我看来看去，最容易得出的结论就是lower low ahead (Please pay attention, when I say lower low, I mean lower than today’s low as the conclusion is drawn purely based on the chart. If I mean lower than Aug 9 lows, I’d say it clearly – break below Aug 9 lows. So such lower low calls have been correct for the past weeks and so did the higher high calls)，加上09/23 Market Outlook里举的一大堆理由以及09/26 Market Outlook里的统计，应该基本上可以确认还没有跌完，好消息是，可能the low不远了，至少是个tradable bottom。

先说好消息吧。

今天的ISEE Index创了52 week low，只有53，这个从图上看，highlighted in red，基本上是说后面还有的跌，不过好消息是明天100%的涨，当然sample太小了，只有6 of 6。

 

CPC > 1.4，也是说还有lower low，但是看起来a tradable bottom应该不远了。

 

其他还有几个extreme，看一眼吧，都是说还有的跌。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

ddr

sf?

nanosensor

Ding!

chickencoop

oda

greenback

papertiger

老蛇早日康复，万寿无疆，一桶糨糊！

skipjack

美眉妹

hillcrest

谢谢！

mengtt

Fan8an

小财虫

老蛇早日康复

wyjhyd

George25

当时惘然

Thanks.

Elephant

like2swing

jcs

dodofish

thanks!
祝蛇大早日康复！