我们这个时代的主题：Deleveraging & Depression...

Whigs · 发表于 2011-11-6 11:54 PM

"出来混，总是要还的。。。“

希望这几张图可以挽救几头死牛

awc3 · 发表于 2011-11-7 02:32 AM

jdad4 · 发表于 2011-11-7 07:00 AM

benbendan · 发表于 2011-11-7 07:27 AM

QWE · 发表于 2011-11-7 08:12 AM

回复 Whigs 的帖子

好图

Whigs · 发表于 2011-11-7 01:32 PM

本帖最后由 Whigs 于 2011-11-7 13:32 编辑

Hope you can spend some time to read this very intuitive paper by Ray Dalio:

A Template for Understanding¡
How the Economic Machine Works and How it is Reflected Now
Ray Dalio
Created October 31, 2008 | Updated October, 2011

EM.pdf (185.17 KB, 下载次数: 89)

quix · 发表于 2011-11-8 11:18 PM

Ed02 · 发表于 2011-11-9 12:15 AM

dosman · 发表于 2011-11-9 09:04 AM

这个栏目太需要这样的贴！

sc168 · 发表于 2011-11-9 02:12 PM

benbendan · 发表于 2011-11-10 07:32 AM

cat2011 · 发表于 2011-11-10 06:35 PM

Whigs · 发表于 2011-12-12 05:28 PM

Two updates:

1. ( Morgan Stanley）Bank Deleveraging: Four Equity Market Implications

Bank Deleveraging Four Equity Market Implications.pdf (212.67 KB, 下载次数: 27)

2. ( Nomura ）The World in Balance Sheet Recession: Causes, Cure and Politics
http://www.scribd.com/doc/75487973/Koo58

ruoli · 发表于 2011-12-12 05:49 PM

NYQ · 发表于 2011-12-12 06:19 PM

Thanks, Master!

iguana · 发表于 2011-12-12 06:27 PM

ddd · 发表于 2011-12-12 08:33 PM

本帖最后由 ddd 于 2011-12-12 17:39 编辑

Deleveraging could be near an end. See what data below tells you.

ddd · 发表于 2011-12-12 08:49 PM

本帖最后由 ddd 于 2011-12-12 17:50 编辑

Corporate's cash on hand is at a historical high level:

CORPORATE CASH HOLDINGS HAVE GROWN 59 PERCENT SINCE 2008 | The Wall Street Journal noted today that “non-financial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index were holding $1.12 trillion in cash and short-term investments in their most recent reports, up 59% from $703 billion in the third quarter of 2008.”

Whigs · 发表于 2011-12-13 12:34 AM

ddd 发表于 2011-12-12 20:33
Deleveraging could be near an end. See what data below tells you.

两点评论：
1) Financial Obligations as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income - this data does not count the default on the mortgages. In this situation, overall debts shift from individuals to the banks.
2) The picture does not reflect the other major player of the deleveraging process: banks.

Whigs · 发表于 2011-12-13 12:39 AM

ddd 发表于 2011-12-12 20:49
Corporate's cash on hand is at a historical high level:

CORPORATE CASH HOLDINGS HAVE GROWN 59 PER ...

朱门酒肉臭，路有冻死骨！

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[基础分析] 我们这个时代的主题：Deleveraging & Depression...

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