是否 higher chance to bounce if more days in down?

catbear

最近10年的结果更重要。我觉得结果不会是50%

silicon_beaver

catbear 发表于 2011-11-30 20:54
最近10年的结果更重要。我觉得结果不会是50%

I was thinking exactly the same way.
Chance to bounce (green) after 7 days red "should" be higher than after two days red.

But the statistics analysis doesn't support my previous thought.

I could re-calculate the data using the last ten years on this weekend.

catbear

silicon_beaver 发表于 2011-12-1 00:04
I was thinking exactly the same way.
Chance to bounce (green) after 7 days red "should" be higher ...

我不会写程序， 但我粗粗地看了一下， 最近三年， 连跌7天就是极限， 没有超过7天的。

所以， 我感觉， 如果统计最近的10年， 连跌7天后很可能就不是5、5开了。

silicon_beaver

catbear 发表于 2011-11-30 21:38
我不会写程序， 但我粗粗地看了一下， 最近三年， 连跌7天就是极限， 没有超过7天的。

所以， 我感觉， ...

Your feeling is right, unbelievable.

Please read the statistical analysis using the last ten year's data. In general, higher chance to bounce.

N        next day green         red        unchanged
N=08        1        0       
N=07        2        1        
N=06        4        3       
N=05        17        7       
N=04        39        24       
N=03        100        63       
N=02        185        163        1
N=01        453        349

Notes of last ten year's data:
1. N > 8 days never occurs (hence, if we see 8 consecutive red days, tomorrow must go green, 100% sure).
2. In general, next day has > 50% chance to green. This is NOT same as the statistical analysis using the last 60 year's data.

bokchoy888

thanks!

bokchoy888

How about if green for N days?