12-27-2011 更新

hunting

各位同学早上好，/ES看起来，还在上升通道中，设个止损点让子弹自己去飞，，这星期可能猪当家，，大家随便聊，，聊啥都行，，;p;p;p

hunting

班长指示；Flat open, any gap will be filled. Global ES is testing the resistance. Holiday market so not much to say, let's watch.

丛林法则

wyjhyd

hunting

转个贴给大家看看，，，
Let's examine the chart. Notice the top price box which is the Cdn $ ratio to the vix. When the Loonie outperforms the VIX, it is time to get long commodities.
Notice the SPX : VIX chart has broken out as well. The vertical green lines are placed where the dotted lines were broken by the chart action. Is this denoting a major breakout like 2009 and 2010? Sure looks like it here.

It looks like the SPX:TLT chart is breaking out too. This should make the TBT trade (Buy the TBT, as prices in bonds fall, it drives up the yield) In 2009, the move was over 50% in a month. Could this be another? Look at the TBT chart. We tried this trade earlier in the fall and got stopped out.

It also looks like the SPX is testing the trendline. A breakout on a weekly chart is always significant.

aimei

回复 hunting 的帖子

time to load GOLD?
Nice chart
learning

aimei

Laoda,
how about ES and EURO?
Thanks

Diver

Diver

the market that is currently meeting overhead resistance, at 12,300 for DJIA and 1,265 for the S&P500 index, and is vulnerable to a downward correction. It is possible that there is sufficient upside momentum to cause these indices to climb somewhat higher, or hover, before dipping again. However, the probability is high that a moderate downward correction is likely before the next leg up of the current rally can recommence in 2012.

90ufo

$NAZ, IWM($RUT), MDY(mid-cap) still negative for the year. 总统任期第三年,SPX都正的, 其他indices呢,也都正吗? 谁有这方面的统计吗?   主要是判断,如果这几个laggards都会positive for the year, 那还有上涨空间啊.

Diver

90ufo 发表于 2011-12-27 06:41
$NAZ, IWM($RUT), MDY(mid-cap) still negative for the year. 总统任期第三年,SPX都正的, 其他indices呢,也 ...

I think there is still plenty rooms for upside movements.

1. DIA, SPY, and QQQ are in short term uptrend currently. IWM is hovering under the resistent line. When the lagging IWM catches up, it will add new fuel to propel DIA and SPY to upside.
2. Junks are not flying yet. They are about to take off now.
3. VIX may still have some more room to downside. 15-18 was solid bottom.

Diver

ZT:

"For a while I was in the “Europe debt mess is unsolvable” camp. But then I realized that I was just falling victim to a far too common human behavior. That being that when a problem is so large and complex we make the easy (and false) assumption that…“if I can’t figure it out, then no one can”.

But let’s be honest with ourselves. How many of us are European political science majors? Or have done extensive work understanding the European economic system over the last 20 years since the Euro was formed?

The answer is that 99.9993% don’t have the proper background to analyze this situation. And unfortunately most of the experts we read on this subject are just faking it. Yes, there I said it!

There are very, very few people with the proper background in which to fully comprehend the European debt disaster. The rest of the investment writers just faked like they knew what they were talking about. And yes, I was as guilty as any of them.

That is why I wrote this article on December 1st to come clean on the subject and provide a different viewpoint on how the European situation may indeed get resolved.

Why I Am 0% Long Stocks

(Note that since I wrote this article I have gotten a bit more bullish and am about 70% long the stock market just in time for this Santa Claus rally).

To sum it up, just because we don’t fully comprehend how a situation gets resolved doesn’t mean that it ends in disaster. So those still clinging to the European implosion scenario may find themselves on the wrong side of the market in 2012. "

Diver

IWM just printed an intraday new HOD now!

Diver

It seems money is moving from gold to stocks currently. Maybe next stage money will move from TLT to stocks, too.

Diver

today it is not likely to reverse down because IWM is leading up now:

IWM>QQQ>SPY=DIA

dsp

Diver 发表于 2011-12-27 11:44
It seems money is moving from gold to stocks currently. Maybe next stage money will move from TLT to ...

How do you know that? Thanks.

silicon_beaver

Loaded ERY, some TZA. But 25.37 buy order not filled. Watching...

silicon_beaver

Eventually TZA seems bottomed.
FAZ has been green a while today. While ERY and TZA struggling around their bottom.

silicon_beaver

TZA is is its 2nd leg.

silicon_beaver

VIX added up with SPX.
SPX and VIX go up both, this case 10%.