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发表于 2012-2-1 10:05 AM
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U.S. economic data is having a bad week. Yesterday, the New York based Conference Board’s confidence index decreased to 61.1 from a revised 64.8 the prior month. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. indicated that its barometer fell to 60.2 from 62.2 in December. This morning’s ADP Employment Change data was disappointing coming in at 170,000 which was down from the revised 292,000. We will have the ISM data out at 10:00 AM. The markets have been looking for slightly improved numbers but we will see.
While the markets have been dealing with disappointing US economic data they have also been trying to figure out what is going on in Asia. China is signaling that they are weathering the European debt crisis better than expected. China’s purchasing managers’ index improved from December’s 50.3 to 50.5 in January. Median estimates had the data at 49.6. A number above 50 indicates expansion, below contraction. The Chinese government has refrained from cutting the reserve ratio and investor confidence has improved off of the better than expected PMI.
Looking at things as a whole could indicate that the economic slowdown isn’t as bad as many had expected. The rest of Asia however, does not seem to be fairing as well. Economic growth is slowing in countries like South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia and India. We are already beginning to see softer monetary policy in countries like India and Indonesia which could easily spread throughout the region. Easing usually produces more easing which will put pressure on the currencies going forward.
country’s creditors “to a successful conclusion by the end of the week.” He has indicated that he will try to comply with German demands for a bigger debt write down by investors and deeper budget cuts on the part of his government. While the situation in Greece drags on people have forgotten about Portugal. Portugal’s bond holders are becoming increasingly concerned that the country is getting closer to following Greece’s example of negotiating a debt exchange to severely reduce the value of its notes. This is just a reminder that if and when Greece reaches an agreement with its investors it does not eliminate continuing concerns for the likes of Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy.
All of the little Dollars have done well this week with the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars appreciating against the US Dollar. The Chinese data helped attract interest in these currencies early in the trading session and they continue to hold onto the gains this morning. In Australia, Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that the Aussie Dollar is likely to remain, “relatively high for years to come.” She went on to say, “Our success is driving the Dollar.” “In turn, the Dollar is driving change and in doing so it’s making our economy leaner and stronger, forcing us to move more of our effort—more money, more equipment, more people—into the parts of our economy where we can create the greatest value.” Gillard’s comments to the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce in Melbourne were in response to industries seeking relief from their exposure
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-1-31 04:20 PM
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，在我的4小时图，看起来要继续北上，，
