黄金MM粉丝贴

hunting

开一个黄金的专贴给所有对黄金有兴趣的同学们，大家可以FA，TA，PA，一起上，交流各种意见，互相学习，好好生蛋，，（注；YMYD），:

ellesmere

hunting

我对喜欢黄金MM是因为拜读了徐世维老师的文章，200%赞同徐老师的价值投资观点，首先来一个糖块和糖水(关于金钱的寓言)  

从前有一家贩卖糖块的店铺,刚开始时客人买到的是固体的糖块.

后来店主对客人说,与其你回家自己把糖块沏成糖水,不如我现在就帮你制成糖水,客人同意了,于是店主当着客人的面把糖块沏成糖水,卖给了客人.因为糖水的甜度是百分之百,客人得到了方便很高兴.

后来购买糖水的次数多了,客人放松了警惕,开始信任了店铺,不再要求店主当面把糖块沏成糖水.店主觉得有机可乘,开始逐渐地往糖水里搀入清水.

起初客人没有察觉糖水在甜度上有何折扣.长此下去,有些人渐渐地感觉到了甜度上的差别,弄明白了真相的客人有些开始要求非固体的糖块不买,有些则不再从这家店铺购买.这家店铺掺水做假的消息传开之后,信用全失,没有人愿意再与它打交道,店铺终于破产关门了.

在金融世界里,糖块就是真正的价值储藏物黄金,糖水就是貌似黄金等价物的信用货币 - 美元和其它纸币,店家就是一再过量增发纸币,往货币的价值里掺水的各国中央银行.

如今越来越多的人知道中央银行和美元的信用已经丧失,恶劣的名声传出去就再也收不回来了,正如下面YouTube上的健壮大叔所说的,所有的纸币最后都将变成一张废纸,如今的美元仅仅经过了短暂的39年就颓象毕露,美元在通往废纸的道路上已经无法回头了.

hunting

先来一张5年的周线图，

hunting

再搬来一张Snowrider 老大的黄金波浪图，和我的日线图，谢谢Snowrider老大，从图上看比较大的可能是还有一跌，，

silicon_beaver

胡同儿串子

回复 hunting 的帖子

真希望还有一跌

wsjboy

感谢huting斑竹开黄金贴

duoduomao

  

NZX

那么，GLD是糖块还是糖水呢？

hunting

2-11日更新，看起来动力向下，还没跌完，不要急得抄底，，不跌才有买的理由，，

hunting

02-16 更新图，，

hunting

02-21  GLD 更新图，，，

hunting

02-22   GLD更新图，，

hunting

转贴；THE BULLISH MOVE IN GOLD ISN'T OVER
It takes time and patience for continuation patterns to play out. Many traders grow frustrated, especially after the stealth move higher ends because of the time involved for continuation patterns to form. The current bull market in gold has lasted more than a decade and there are few technical signs of it ending now. First, let's take a look at a 12 year weekly chart to step back and grasp the overall picture:
You can see from the blue circles above that every "stealth" move higher has been followed by a longer than usual consolidation period. And that makes sense. There needs to be a cleansing period where a whole new group of longs participate as weaker hands let go of their positions. The other technical observation is that the current consolidation phase has allowed a VERY stretched MACD to move back down to test its centerline. This means that gold's 12 week EMA essentially equaled its 26 week EMA. A lot of the overbought conditions have been relieved. Another observation is that every time gold has seen its weekly RSI dip beneath 50 and its weekly stochastic fall to 20 or below, that combination has resulted in a very strong buy signal.

hunting

Now let's take a look at the current pattern on a daily chart:
There are a couple of different interpretations which would lead to differing methods of accumulation and risk management. Obviously, we have a bullish wedge breakout, but also have the prospects of an inverse head & shoulders pattern that would measure to 2075 in time. Perhaps an inverse right shoulder will form on a back test of the wedge breakout? Either way, this pattern looks bullish and I'd be a buyer of gold.

I've provided a few technical reasons why I believe gold is going higher. Fundamentally, I believe gold will be higher because Fed Chairman Bernanke wants to inflate our way out of the financial crisis and the resulting economic weakness. The next big issue is going to be inflation, I have no doubt. If you've listened to Bernanke, you know the Fed will do EVERYTHING it can to avoid a deflationary environment. They will continue to expand the Fed's balance sheet. QE 3 is coming so get ready. Ultimately, there will be a price to pay and it's going to come in the form of inflation. What do you think is going to happen to gold prices as inflation is sparked? Inflation may stay historically low for the next couple years, but it is NOT going to remain low. I rest my case.

hunting

02-28  GLD 更新图，，

Diffusion

Gold follow $spx recently, if market drop, gold will be soft.

hunting

02-29   GLD 更新图，，

Diffusion

Diffusion 发表于 2012-2-29 01:28
Gold follow $spx recently, if market drop, gold will be soft.