老蛇累了,我看看能不能多说两句。可是偶不会画图,今年一共也就画了三四个。
虽说,我上次说是要走头肩,没想到这么快就把臂也走出来了。
从TA的角度看,是弱势, 但不会很快破底
现在大盘看的是经济走势,而不是ER。因为ER好不代表以后会好,ER差但不知道是不是底。
只要Employment Rate 能撑到年底,那么就会有一波Rally
很多Funds long oil and short financials since last year. They had been holding those positions until 7/15. That caused sudden increase on risk aversion level on the street. What does it mean? It means that some money will be on the sideline for a longer period. Bad for short term, silver lining for mid term. Long term depends on the economy.
很多人想的可能是:现在烧是不是晚了。
我的看法是,大势还是要往下走的,但是会时不时的有Short Squeeze. 所以我不愿意现在做空。
Oil 已经在线上待了两天了,不见起色,是Bearish sign。But oil is very sensitive to external news. |