报告读后感

jsl

One more thing, if the market does go higher (not tomorrow), I will switch some budget to swing trading out of DT.

金牛银熊

jsl

班长说的简洁。

 

如果没有意外的新闻，持平的可能最大。下跌会有人接盘，升又怕被砸。

如宝马所说，Market Sentiment has changed to positive.

 

我本来是hedge近期新闻的，结果一不小心Long多了。也没太注意明天的Economic release。失误啊。

 

我们现在看到双顶，如果今后几天横盘（可能大）或下跌，那么双顶当作一波。如果接着涨，可能就是第二小波。

另一种更较可能的情况是，从这里走三角， 也就是说短期小跌。

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-1 00:06 编辑 ]

jsl

如果明天涨，那么牛牛就踏实多了。如果跌，以后还是应该有机会出逃。相比之下，还是稍牛一些好。只要小涨或横盘，就会给熊熊很大压力 [ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-1 00:35 编辑 ]

jsl

熊市中的Rally，是一波比一波长，之后一波比一波跌的猛。如果迟迟不见大跌，就该涨了。从这个角度上看，过去两个月的跌幅够了，很快接着跌的可能性不大了。上一次涨大约两个月，这回至少也是两个月。这两天实在是变化很多，大家纷纷放炮。我也多胡说两句，帮助自己客观看问题。 发现 zero 之前也说到这个三角，嗯，是挺有趣的。 [ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-1 01:03 编辑 ]

bigbadwolf

 

现在金融股应该会稳下来几个月，至少震荡向上走到明年一月。

油价跌下来对运输股， 个人消费甚至石油公司是利多。

国会的新房法， 会让房市回稳一年吧。 我的邻居和同事现在开始看房子了， 和想换大房。

科技股先看CSCO下星期的ER。 然后果果随时会发力向上。

所以近期股市不应会有大跌。

 

 

[ 本帖最后由 bigbadwolf 于 2008-7-31 23:14 编辑 ]

jsl

My report take-aways:

 

短期信号不支持大盘继续向上

反弹结束的可能大

如果上升空间不大，中期信号是需要Hedge的

用QQQQ hedge 是一个不错的选择

 

My comments:

 "Never trust a market moving obviously in response to specific news." ?

I do trust market moves in accord with specific news. The question is how much it should have moved. Under the current uncertainty, nothing can be deemed as ovbvious. So no wonder why it has been so volatile on daily charts. Marginnally, I prefer to have volatility at this stage.

 

My view:

I anticipate a longer than normal consolidation period. It means that it will be long enough so that people start to be impatient. From my limited TA knowledge, I kind of agree that there is a chance of restesting the July low. However, I would think, sideline money will jump in, since at that level, the risk is only about 10% and can be less with proper hedge. This can be the dynamics. From FA point of view, it is still too early to say if we are half way through the downturn. Productivity is right on the border line

jsl

Summary:

1. possible rebound after three days drop

2. 中期信号开始有转变倾向

3. Not too late to hedge with Qs

 

my view:

I am really disappointed by the economic release and weak market reaction. The selloff on the commodities definitely make things worse. We don't need two bubbles burst one after another. Now it looks more like going to retest the low. As I said earlier today, there seems to be few catalyst for the market to go up in the near future. I'd love to see some positive surprises.

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-4 23:21 编辑 ]

jsl

Summary:

 

感觉上是要回调的，理由是：CPC低，QQQQ，VXN，NAMO超买，三大指数超买，QQQQ daily 是 Bearish Rising Wedge。SMH to test trendline. Dollar faces strong technical pressure.

 

My view:

 

I don't see any reason for the market to rally this much today, though the intraday chart definitely show strength. Good or bad? Don't know. But there are some guesses. The market may not fully price in the oil drop in the past week. Economic numbers are, after all, better than the expectations. The market might have been heavily shorted....

 

Now the SPX is close to the upper edge of the triangle. I continue to believe that the triangle is defining the moves rather than an imaginary up-channel.

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-5 23:46 编辑 ]

Cobra

收到，你写得很好啊。就是这个东东俺给你红钻，有点俺受用MP的意思，呵呵，你理解哈。

jsl

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-8-5 23:41 发表 收到，你写得很好啊。就是这个东东俺给你红钻，有点俺受用MP的意思，呵呵，你理解哈。

班长每天辛苦，我也给自己留个作业，体会体会

lisa

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-5 23:29 发表 Summary:   感觉上是要回调的，理由是：CPC低，QQQQ，VXN，NAMO超买，三大指数超买，QQQQ daily 是 Bearish Rising Wedge。SMH to test trendline. Dollar faces strong technical pressure.   My vie ...

好像以前有人统计过， 如果 dow 大涨300点， 第二天又很大可能  (> 60%)  会收红。

jsl

原帖由 lisa 于 2008-8-5 23:51 发表 好像以前有人统计过， 如果 dow 大涨300点， 第二天又很大可能  (> 60%)  会收红。

这个我也同意。整体上讲，我感觉market有些climbing the wall of worry的意思。就看这些Worry什么时候兑现或能否兑现，也许会有一个大的Selloff. 但在没发生之前，就不停的Short Squeeze.

 

SPX 离上沿还有一小小段，正够明天Continue

lisa

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-5 23:58 发表 这个我也同意。整体上讲，我感觉market有些climbing the wall of worry的意思。就看这些Worry什么时候兑现或能否兑现，也许会有一个大的Selloff. 但在没发生之前，就不停的Short Squeeze.   SPX 离上沿还有 ...

希望如此， 总觉得 MM 在大家都看牛的时候打一下牛牛， 大家都看熊的时候挤一下熊熊。

jsl

由于××××，恼羞成怒，找机会Bash班长

 

Summary：

1. 感觉要至少连涨4天, Wishful thinking!

2. 然后举例说明要回调：

  a)  Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume ----spike

  b) Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily)，VIX MA10 Envelop----touch envelope

  c) QQQQ 继续超买

  d) Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships ----- bearish

  e) Yen RSI and the Market Bottom ------ sign of reversal 尽管现下可能有结构性变化

  f) SPY DIA ----Bearish Rising Wedge

  g) INDU---- face major resistance

  h) SMH IWM QQQQ 都面临resistance,或呈现反转图形

3. （此处删四字）开始强调系统性的重要  (my comment: 明显的到顶信号）

4. Gold 或有反弹

5. Oil 也可能要反弹。有XLE支持。同时可能伴随XLF回调

 

My View：

Market will pullback tomorrow. But what I will look at are the magnitude and speed.

I personal think the pullback will be slow and somewhat sallow which will then pave the way for the final break out. After that we may see serious pullback. This is one of the bullish senario.

Another possiblility is to continue with the triangle in a more strict way. Reach the tip and then swing down and up.

Of course, the bears are waiting to attack, any shocking bad news can change the whole picture, since bad news are more trust worthy before the economy goes out of the woods.

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-7 00:51 编辑 ]

Cobra

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-7 00:41 发表 由于××××，恼羞成怒，找机会Bash班长   Summary： 1. 感觉要至少连涨4天, Wishful thinking! 2. 然后举例说明要回调：   a)  Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume ...

 

一针见血。俺到是没有心理没底，只不过现在影响大了，说话不得不小心谨慎。可能潜意识里是心理没底吧。你的comment非常棒，也是俺学习的机会！请坚持。

爱逛胡同

终于等到了.....jsl的读后感也是小青蛙的每日必读了...



谢谢总结....

ILoveRice

jsl

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-8-7 00:47 发表   一针见血。俺到是没有心理没底，只不过现在影响大了，说话不得不小心谨慎。可能潜意识里是心理没底吧。你的comment非常棒，也是俺学习的机会！请坚持。

跟你开个玩笑。再补充两句

 

Gold 在短期失去了他的Asset allocation 的作用：

1. Inflation is high now, but won't jump in a very short term. In other words, year over year will be high, but month over month can be flattish.

2. Less need to hedge dollar.

3. Stock and even bond become more attractive compare with gold without bearing interest.

 

All that being said, long term inflation concern is still there, and accumulating gold is still a good way of hedge potential economic shoe drop.

 

Similarly, oil will have some sort of bounce, but won't be as attractive as before. BTW, the trend line in 3.4.2 is not long term, it is mid term. long term trend line is 90ish in a bullish drawing.

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-7 01:04 编辑 ]

Cobra

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-7 01:03 发表 跟你开个玩笑。再补充两句   Gold 在短期失去了他的Asset allocation 的作用： 1. Inflation is high now, but won't jump in a very short term. In other words, year over year will be high, but ...