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发表于 2012-5-9 08:56 AM
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本帖最后由 NZX 于 2012-5-9 09:57 编辑
That very small band aid that has been trying to contain that very large European gash, which we have spoken about before, has become very loose with a very high probability of falling off all together. The markets that have been so very quiet and contained over these many months are now extremely nervous as political tensions create pressure throughout the European Union. This past weekend Francois Hollande became the first Socialist to win the French presidency in 17 years after he defeated Nicolas Sarkozy on an anti-austerity platform. Spain is talking about recapitalization of their troubled banks by setting up a “bad bank” along with providing government guarantees for problem autonomous regions. Despite advances in exports and productivity Spain is having difficulty convincing the markets of their good news and with bond yields surging Spain may be forced into an international bailout. It seems that international investors are having trouble believing that Spain will be able to restore growth, reduce the region’s highest unemployment rate and contain the increase in debt. Greece is back in the picture even sooner than we thought. On May 6th New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said he failed to form a new government andpassed the opportunity to Alexis Tsipras of Greece’s Syriza party, which placed second in the Greek elections. Tsipras said hewould try to form a coalition government of left-wing parties that will reject the austerity measures set forth to secure the European Union – led bailout. Mr. Tsipras has since handed other political leaders an ultimatum to renounce support for the austerity program if they want to enter the government. Some government officials have rejected the ultimatum of revoking their written pledges by the time Tsipras meets with them today. If politicians fail to form a governing coalition there may be another election in mid June. Should Mr. Tsipras succeed Greece may soon be taking steps much closer toward leaving the Euro. Even Ireland has returned to the forefront. The Irish will hold a referendum on Europe’s fiscal treaty on May 31st. Voices are getting inspiration from Athens and Paris whose voters have rejected budget cuts to help improve the Euro-region debt crisis. Ireland has been playing nice in the sandbox by pushing through every measure asked of it since its 2010 rescue. A “no” vote would deal a further blow to the German led EU bloc who are unwavering in their belief that budget cuts are essential to the survival of the Union and its single currency. The currency markets are very nervous and the US Dollar has been a big benefactor this morning. Risk markets have come under pressure and commodity markets are seeing consolidation with all of the metals off large overnight. Those currencies linked to global growth (Aussie, Kiwi, Canadian Dollar) are falling within a risk off environment.
The Australian Dollar in particular has come under extreme pressure after Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that returning the budget to surplus will give the central bank “maximum room to move” in setting interest rates. The markets believe these comments indicate further rate cuts in the near term. The now uncertain markets have pushed equities lower worldwide with Asian Indexes falling to their lowest levels since January. This is putting pressure on Asian currencies. The US Dollar indexes are pointing higher and we are beginning to see those traders, who have been sitting on the sidelines for months, getting back into the game. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-5-8 02:36 PM
