Ten Basic Laws

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matte at 168

Post subject: Ten Basic Laws Posted: 8/1/08 22:30

1. The trend is your friend
2. Don't confuse brains with a bull market
3. 50% of the movement in a stock is due to the overall market, 30% to the industry group, and 20% of the fundamentals of the company.
4. 80% of the research budget of a Wall Street brokerage firm is devoted to fundamental analysis.
5. Sellside analysts make more money than buyside analysts.
6. The problem in trendfollowing is determining when trends start and when they end.
7. The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.
8. The more available information is, the less useful it is.
9. Figures lie and liars figure.
10. When you sit down to a poker game, look around the table to find the pigeons. If you can't find any, you're the pigeon.

I love the last one

xiaobailong

狗狗狸

 Post subject: 14 useless basic laws

Posted: 8/2/08 10:19


1. The trend is your friend, but you don't know her face

2. Don't confuse brains with a bull market, but you don't know when

3. 50% of the movement in a stock is due to the overall market, 30% to the industry group, and 20% of the fundamentals of the company, so most stocks are random walking?

4. 80% of the research budget of a Wall Street brokerage firm is devoted to fundamental analysis, and?

5. Sellside analysts make more money than buyside analysts, and?

6. The problem in trendfollowing is determining when trends start and when they end, refer to 1.

7. The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent, and?

8. The more available information is, the less useful it is. yeah... so what? 跑锅never cares about this.

9. Figures lie and liars figure. blah blah blah..

10. When you sit down to a poker game, look around the table to find the pigs. If you can't find any, you're the pig. even if you can figure out who the pig is, you are still a pig, 'cause there's only one tiger.

11. Follow the trend. But How?

12. Buy Low Sell High. But How?

13. Buy High Sell Low. But How?

14. Buy High Sell Higher. But How?

xiaobailong

xiaobailong

eveready

Post subject: Basic Training For Future Traders Posted: 7/22/08 23:26

借花献佛。共50条rule。大家各抒己见，呵呵。

 

Don’t be afraid to be a sheep.

1。Follow the trends. This is probably some of the hardest advice for a trader to follow because the personality of the typical futures trader is not "one of the crowd." Futures traders (and futures brokers) are highly individualistic; the markets seem to attract those who are. Very simply, it takes a special kind of person, not "one of the crowd,"to earn enough risk capital to get involved in the futures markets. So the typical trader and the typical broker must guard against their natural instincts to be highly individualistic, to buck the crowd.

2。Know why you are in the markets. To relieve boredom? To hit it big? When you can honestly answer this question, you may be on your way to successful futures trading.

3。Use a system, any system, and stick to it

4。Apply money management techniques to your trading. 

5。Do not overtrade

6。Take a position only when you know where your profit goal is and where you are going to get out if the market goes against you. 

7。Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.

8。Don’t trade many markets with little capital.

9。Don’t just trade the volatile contracts.

10。Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against the risk of holding it too long.

11。Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions. Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react. Don’t change during the session unless you have a very good reason.

12。Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached, or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.

13。Use technical signals (charts) to maintain discipline—the vast majority of traders are not emotionally equipped to stay disciplined without some technical tools

Use discipline to eliminate impulse trading.

14。Have a disciplined, detailed trading plan for each trade; i.e., entry, objective, exit, and stick to this plan unless hard data changes. Disciplined money management means intelligent trading allocations and risk management. The overall objective is end of year bottom line, not each individual trade.

15。When you have a successful trade, fight the natural tendency to give some of it back.

16。Use a disciplined trade selection system . . . an organized, systematic process to eliminate impulse or emotional trading.

17。Trade with a plan—not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, plan how much you will risk on the trade, and plan where you will take your profits.

Cut Losses Short.

18。Most importantly, cut your losses short, let your profits run. It sounds simple, but it isn’t. Let’s look at some of the reasons many traders have a hard time "cutting losses short." First, it’s hard for any of us to admit we’ve made a mistake. Let’s say a position starts going against you, and all your "good" reasons for putting the position on are still there. You say to yourself, "it’s only a temporary set-back. After all (you reason), the more the position goes against me, the better chance it has to come back—the odds will catch up." Also, the reasons for entering the trade are still there. By now you’ve lost quite a bit; you sell yourself on giving it "one more day." It’s easy to convince yourself because, by this time, you probably aren’t thinking very clearly about the position. Besides, you’ve lost so much already, what’s a little more? Panic sets in, and then comes the worst, the most devastating, the most fallacious reasoning of all, when you figure: "That contract doesn’t expire for a few more months; things are bound to turn around in the meantime."

So it goes; so cut those losses short. In fact, many experienced traders say if a position still goes against you the third day in, get out. Cut those losses fast, before the losing position starts to infect you, before you "fall in love" with it. The easiest way is to inscribe across the front of your brain, "Cut my losses fast." Use stop loss orders, aim for a $500 per contract loss limit . . . or whatever works for you, but do it.

19。You can avoid the emotionalism, the second guessing, the wondering, the agonizing, if you have a sound trading plan (including price objectives, entry points, exit points, risk-reward ratios, stops, information about historical price levels, seasonal influences, government reports, prices of related markets, chart analysis, etc.) and follow it. Most traders don’t want to bother, they like to "wing it." Perhaps they think a plan might take the fun out of it for them. If you’re like that and trade futures for the fun of it, fine. If you’re trying to make money without a plan--forget it. Trading a sound, smart plan is the answer to cutting your losses short and letting your profits run.

20。Do not overstay a good market. If you do, you are bound to overstay a bad one also.

21。Take your lumps, just be sure they are little lumps. Very successful traders generally have more losing trades than winning trades. It’s just that they don’t have any hang-ups about admitting they’re wrong, and have the ability to close out losing positions quickly.

22。Trade all positions in futures on a performance basis. The position must give a profit by the end of the third day after the position is taken, or else get out.

23。Program your mind to accept many small losses. Program your mind to "sit still" for a few large gains. 

24。Most people would rather own something (go long) than owe something (go short). Markets can (and should) also be traded from the short side.

25。Watch for divergences in related markets--is one market making a new high and another not following?

26。Recognize that fear, greed. ignorance, generosity, stupidity, impatience. self-delusion, etc., can cost you a lot more money than the market(s) going against you, and that there is no fundamental method to recognize these factors.

27。Don’t blindly follow computer trading. A computer trading plan is only as good as the program. As the old saying goes, "Garbage in, garbage out."

28。Learn the basics of futures trading. It’s amazing how many people simply don’t know what they’re doing. They’re bound to lose, unless they have a strong broker to guide them and keep them out of trouble.

Standing Aside is a Position.  Patience is Important

29。Standing aside is a position.

30。Client and broker must have rapport. Chemistry between account executive and client is very important. Pick a broker who will protect you from yourself...greed, ego, fear, subconscious desire to lose (actually true with some traders). Ask someone who trades if they know a good futures broker. If you find one who has room for you, give him your account.

31。Sometimes, when things aren’t going well and you’re thinking about changing brokerage firms, think about just changing AEs instead. Phone the manager of the local office, let him describe some of the other AEs in the office, and see if any of them seem right enough to have a first meeting with. Don’t worry about getting your account executive in trouble; the office certainly would rather have you switch AEs than to lose your business altogether.

32。Broker/client psychology must be in tune, or else the broker and client should part company early in the program. Client and broker should be in touch repeatedly, so when the time comes, both parties are mentally programmed to take the necessary action without delay.

33。Most people do not have the time or the experience to trade futures profitably, so choosing a broker is the most important step to profitable futures trading

34。When you go stale, get out of the markets for a while. Trading futures is demanding, and can be draining—especially when you’re losing. Step back; get away from it all to recharge your batteries.

Thrill seekers usually lose.

35。If you’re in futures simply for the thrill of gambling, you’ll probably lose because, chances are, the money does not mean as much to you as the excitement. Just knowing this about yourself may cause you to be more prudent, which could improve your trading record. Have a business-like approach to the markets.

 36。 When you open an account with a broker, don’t just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time you should trade. This approach helps you conserve your equity, and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of "Well, I’ll trade till my stake runs out." Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time end up making money.

37。Don’t trade on rumors. If you have, ask yourself this: "Over the long run, have I made money or lost money trading on rumors?" O.K. then, stop it.

38。Beware of all tips and inside information. Wait for the market’s action to tell you if the information you’ve obtained is accurate, then take a position with the developing trend.

39。Don’t trade unless you’re well financed . . . so that market action, not financial condition, dictates your entry and exit from the market. If you don’t start with enough money, you may not be able to hang in there if the market temporarily turns against you.

40。Be more careful if you’re extra smart. Smart people very often put on a position a little too early. They see the potential for a price movement before it becomes actual. They become worn out or "tapped out," and aren’t around when a big move finally gets underway. They were too busy trading to make money.

 

Approach the markets with a reasonable time goal.

xiaobailong

炒股者需要千锤百炼的基本功
来源: c101_237 于 08-08-02 19:09:54 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]

因为75%以上的股票都是随大盘而上下波动, 大盘涨, 则水涨船高; 大盘跌, 则覆巢之下没有完卵, 所以看盘是每个市场参与者最重要的工作之一, 也是需要千锤百炼的基本功. 虽然大市变动的信息可以通过各种不同的途经获得, 但无法自己独立看盘的市场参与者所作出的每一个操作上的决定, 基本上是苍白的, 有时是凸离市场, 甚至是错误的.

看盘包括观看大盘的长期, 中短期和超短期, 有时是实时的走行, 综合其它相关的市场信息后, 为融合自己的资金和操作计划提供客观和科学的依据. 虽然各人所观看的大盘指标的时段(TIME FRAME)有所不同, 但看盘的方法大同小异, 有的则可以推而广之, 不但可以用在不同的市场指数和ETF上, 也可以运用到个股中.

1. 看盘要领: 三大指数中, 三者择一

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, NASDAQ 和S&P500, 是观测美国股市的最主要的三大指数. 虽然三大指数有着各自的代表性, 每天上下波动的幅度也会有所不同, 但它们在表达市场的运行方向上却有着极高的相关性, 并且在绝大多数的时间内, 三大指数是一起联动的.

作为个人投资者/交易者, 由于时间和精力的限制, 极少有人能面面具到把三大指数看得滴水不漏的; 而实际生活中多头马车造成 “三个和尚没水喝”的例子比比皆是, 当三大指数运行不一致时, 投资者/交易者最终还是要作出取舍. 与其耗时费力纠缠在三大指数中, 不得要领, 无所适从, 不如早早地三者择一, 盯牢一个, 作为看盘的主要指标. 其它两个指数可以偶尔用来参考一下, 其作用类似于己其它的Sector Index. 这样每天可以节省不少宝贵的时间, 亦有利于集中精力, 提高自己的看盘能力, 力争在把握大盘的主要方向之外, 还能对大盘的每一细小变化, 都能了然于胸.

下面这幅图显示三大指数在过去十年中的运行轨迹和方向上的一致性:

2. 看盘的重点: 方向, 趋势及转折点(DTT)

看盘的重点莫过于市场的方向(Direction). 市场的方向虽然非涨即跌, 只有两个, 却是所有市场参与者的重点. 炒股的问题首先是方向的问题, 方向对了, 一切都好办, 方向错了, 南辕北辙, 很难不亏钱.

而趋势(Trend)常常与市场的方向有关, 趋势一旦建立, 市场往往沿着固有的方向运行一定的时间, 直到抵达目标价位. 市场参与者只要顺势而为, 此时看盘也就变得轻松(不看盘也赚钱!).

市场的转折点(Turning Point) , 即底与顶的观测, 则是观测市场方向和趋势的着眼点. 市场沿着固有的方向运行一定的时间后, 原有的趋势逐渐成熟, 衰减, 市场开始从新调整方向, 积蓄能量后才能再出发, 开始下一个新的周期. 这时观察市场的转折点, 就变得十分重要. 只有熟悉和掌握市场转折点的观测与方法后, 才能更好地把握市场的方向和脉动.

下面两张图的垂直线大致显示了NASDAQ INDEX过去六年中的一些重要的转折点:

 

看盘的另一个重点是阻力与支撑点的观测, 因为许多市场的转折点都发生在重要的阻力与支撑点的附近. 阻力与支撑点的位置, 有时会对市场的方向和趋势起着重要的决定性作用. 通过量价关系的分析, 判断可能的阻力与支撑点, 对于股市的操作具有十分重要的意义.

当然看盘的内容不仅仅止于上述几点. 其它包括价格运行的可能目标及估算,不同时段的移动平均线和其它技术参数(Technical Indicators)的变化(如RSI, MACD, CMF)等等. 技术参数不在于多, 但要重点熟悉和掌握几个, 尤其是要理解这些技术参数和价格变动的内在联系和数学关系, 才不致于造成教条式的应用.

3. TA与看盘工具:

磨刀不误砍柴工, 好的看盘工具能帮助你成为更好的投资者/交易者. 除了实时报价系统, 每个投资者/交易者必须有一套自己熟悉的TA工具.

所谓的TA(技术分析, Technical Analysis), 就是利用对已经发生的市场价格运行在股价图上(Stock Chart)的分析, 推测和预估将要发生和可能出现的情况. 就象天气预报一样, 技术分析并不能100%绝对精确地预测某种情形绝对会发生, 但它会帮助我们anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. 随着技术分析方法的推广和流行, TA的一些术语, 也成了看盘者广为接受的共同语言.

如果你相信市场的有效性, 相信每一个基本面的变化都会作为综合因素的一部分而真实地反映在价格上(TA对manipulation, 对price discounts everything, 都有着自己本身的定义和前提), 你可能会成为一个某种意义上的TA派. TA通常只注重价格(和量)的变化, 因为价格本身的起伏涨跌才是最终决定赢利与否的唯一因素. TA并不排斥FA(Fundamental Analysis), 只是比较少关心导致价格变化的原因而已. 相对于FA有时的看不清, 摸不透, 量不准, TA显得更加透明和直截了当, 易于量化.

如果有兴趣的话, Stockcharts.com 的Chart School 是一个很好的免费的TA入门网站: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

4. Market Indicators的运用:

市场参数(Market Indicators) 是现成的根据某一个市场的数据经过公式计算后的数字指标. 其中Bullish Percent Index (BPI), McClellan Summation Index and Volatility Index (VIX) 是三个非常值得重视和有用的Market Indicators, 可帮助提高看盘的准确性.

5. 看盘时的偏见(BIAS):  

凡人都会有偏见/偏好, 这本无可厚非, 但这样的偏见一旦被带入股市, 有时会造成不堪设想的后果.

Bias is a term used to describe a tendency or preference towards a particular perspective, ideology or result. All information and points of view can generate some form of bias. A person is generally said to be biased if a reasonable observer would conclude that the person is markedly influenced by inner biases, rendering it unlikely for them to be able to be objective. In careful usage bias refers to a belief that leads to a false judgment.

看盘时的偏见往往有两种, 一种是内源性的, 另一种则是外源性的. 内源性偏见通常是受自己手中已持有的POSITION的影响, 或脑子里原先残留/预存的印象所致. 外源性偏见, 是受外部因素的影响, 包括媒体/网络, 身边的朋友等等. 不盲目相信他人的建议, 独立思考, 特别是在网络信息爆炸的时代, 要主动地吸收, 而不是被动地接受外界的信息, 尽可能避免媒体的影响.

市场本身有着它本身严密的系统性和完整性; 而凡走过必留下痕迹, 市场的变化, 尤其是大的变化和转折前, 往往都是有迹可循. 只要用心, 细致的观察, 在市场面前保持一种谦虚谨慎的态度, 以市场为师, 不断地总结, 撇除个人的偏见, 结合现有的分析技术和前人的经验, 终会百炼成钢,进而较为准确地把握市场的脉动.

“我视汝情, 明若观火”, 这是看盘者应该追求的一种境界.

xiaobailong

中长线操作的风险和止损
来源: boxhead 于 08-08-02 05:38:26 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]

中长线操作的风险和止损
=========================

长期以来，在股票证券市场一直有一种
错误的倾向：“范巴非特原理”， 就是认为
短线和当日对冲是投机，风险很高，
而中长线操作是投资，风险低。

其实，这种错误的来源就是把风险纯粹理解为
波动（volatility).完全忽略了真正风险的内涵：

不可预测的随机事件，引发了灾害事件，而且小的灾害事件
又成为更多灾害事件的源头。（灾害事件的因果关联）。

股票操作的中长线操作的风险高，其根本原因就是公司发展和
整个经济发展的趋势总是有不可预测的不确定因素，
而我们在投资这类股票的时候，不能完全预测几个月后的突发
灾害事件及其带来的影响，从而采取风险防范的措施。

相反，做当日对冲和短线操作的人，由于操作时间间隔短，
随时靠大脑的判断监控预测下一步的股票运动，所以，即使有
误判，当日结算和短线的止损都把风险降到了最小。

然而，我们进行中长线投资的人，一般都有其它的工作，
不可能时时刻刻盯着股票，四五个月只进行一次买卖。
但一但走开，或出差在外，出现了意外的突发事件，完全会让我们
中长线的投资利润目标失败甚至损失惨重。

这时候，我们就要学会使用期权来锁定损失，达到止损的目的。

例如：
我们做多股票 A，准备持有３个月，就要设定亏损的上限，比如说是
５％。那么我们在买入该股票时候，就要买入三个月后该股票的９５％
市值的 Put. 那么，在这下来的三个月中，如果有达到我们利润指标的时候就抛了，如果没有达到反而被深深套牢，到了三个月后，还有
在９５％价格位置卖出的指望。

同理，
我们做空股票 B，准备持有３个月，就要设定亏损的上限，比如说是
５％。那么我们在空该股票时候，就要买入三个月后该股票的１０５％
市值的 CALL. 那么，在这下来的三个月中，如果有达到我们利润指标的时候就抛了，如果没有达到反而被深深套牢，到了三个月后，还有
在105％价格位置买回（Cover)的指望。

我发现很多大千的哥们儿，做中长线的不操作Option,
到是短线，DT 的在买卖CALL/Put, 这很奇怪。别人当初设计
期权目的不是让你们投机赚差价的，而是中长线的投资者有
个止损的办法。

哈，也许你们是对的（因为赚钱了）。

“中长线操作的风险和止损”大家别忘了。

lisa

收藏， 谢谢小白。 :lol :lol

小咪

谢谢， 我放到包里了，

Bencat

thank you.