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[系列贴] SPY 荡秋千 2012-09

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发表于 2012-9-10 03:50 PM | 显示全部楼层


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发表于 2012-9-10 04:33 PM | 显示全部楼层
这就叫顶
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发表于 2012-9-10 06:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-10 08:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0910 cont.

forgot tomorrow is actually 911. It's time for WS to show patriotism. Borrowed a table that lists all previous cases from Cobra.

It points to a plan: a dip in the morning could be a great chance to buy. Wait and see.


120910-911.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-11 10:32 AM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0911 午饭瞎扯

昨天收盘买,SO FAR SO GOOD,虽然QQQ不如SPY. (以后还是专稿SPY FAMILY)

昨晚MM一开始高的动静还挺大,以为今天会探143,最终一场空。(其实我是希望探一探,好再买点的)

不过,如昨天所言,已经准备撤了。安全第一。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-11 03:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0911

As updated at lunch time, I have exited all ST longs thereafter at about a price of SPY $144.1. The closing price is slightly lower, which is used in the demo account for easy tracking.

The price shows  a consolidation pattern. But I feel a reversal is approaching to lead to a pullback. If it turns out later that the pullback is replaced by a narrow ranging action or straight gap up, new longs could be entered upon breaking out.

NO shorts were bought in my real account. But I did so in this demo acct for the testing purpose only. Caution: It's obviously against the trend on longer timeframe, and NOT recommended to anyone.

ST: ranging, a potential reversal could take place soon

MT: UP

LT: UP

01.jpg
02.JPG

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-12 03:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0912

Not much to say. The today's high is 144.55, only 5c shy of the stop for the SPY short position in the paper account. Although I still believe a sort of ST top is around, this short trade has been terminated by the closing price to avoid extreme uncertainty tomorrow. A slight loss !!!

It's also why I don't like shorting the market, which requires better skills and more importantly, guts. My real ST account is empty of positions, and no big plan to add long or short.

A note on sentiment: "大家全都很乐观,闷头做牛。其实今年大盘已经涨了很多,还是不要太贪得好。宰牛过年的日子或许不远了"

ST: UP, may be getting closer to reverse. Could be another UP leg

MT: UP

LT: UP

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发表于 2012-9-12 04:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-9-12 05:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
ding
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-13 03:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0913

A little bit frustrated for missing this rally in the ST account. Fortunately, both MT and LT accounts are holding long positions firmly.

If there was no QE3 news release today, the price pattern did look bullish-biased yesterday as being consolidating and refusing to pullback big where it should be. I probably would have entered in this morning's pullback. However, the avoidance of uncertainty led to an empty ST position. Wheter or not it's worthwhile remains to been thought.

A good news is the short position in the paper account was terminated on purpose, which would otherwise have suffered a loss then.  

Anyway, The trend is clear on all time frames. All the way UP, and will attempT to buy the first dip.

ST: UP

MT: UP

LT: UP
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发表于 2012-9-13 07:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-14 07:44 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0914

周末了,一切从简。

ST: UP, 现在PULLBACKing。结束没有还未知,但很大的可能会在上扬一次,所以应该是安全的。关键是随后可能会开始一个较大级别的修正,现在进去搞不好会陷进去。我选择继续观望。

MT: UP

LT: UP
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发表于 2012-9-15 03:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-17 03:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0917

Not much to say. The market is doing slow-motion, and slight pullback. Since the trends on various timeframes are all officially UP, this ongoing drop should be buyable. Thus, tested water with light position on the closing price. If the mkt dips more on following days, more longs will be entered then.

ST: UP
MT: UP

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发表于 2012-9-17 05:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-18 05:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0918

still not much to say. Whether or not the pullback has come to an end remains a question mark. If the mkt continue to consolidate within this narrow range tomorrow, I think the odds of breaking down will increase. Wait and see.

ST: UP
MT: UP

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-19 03:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-019

another boring day. But the good news is that the low of the yesterday has been upgraded to a critical level worth of watching closely (SPY: 146.25). The time it's broken is when ST bullish positions should be liquidated.

Crude oil was sold off very ugly this week. USO dropped over 4% today. It would be very interesting to watch how the FED controls the energy price. Saudi jumped out to say it will increase output. For what ? It seems the FED hopes inflation could remain well under control in the flood of freshly printed greenbacks. Sounds a sweet dream and a mission impossible. But in the Fed, we trust.

ST: UP
MT: UP

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发表于 2012-9-19 03:36 PM | 显示全部楼层


Yes, it's Fed's Finger.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-20 08:55 AM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0920 9:55 am

火线更新:开盘低于146.25, ST仓位直接出局 at MOO price。胆大的可以跟进SHORT,我胆小。但DEMO ACCT did
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-20 03:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
2012-0920

最终还是被MM涮了, ST 长仓出低了。其实系统中要求绝大多数情况下,以收盘价计。可经常就昏了头,看见突破,一紧张或一兴奋,就出昏招,把纪律抛在脑后。继续磨练。

不过,今天收盘这个样子,ST仓位也是一定要出。比开盘价亏7个点。在这个区间不确定性太大,不玩了。 这年头做熊不容易, SHORT就不参与了。(DEMO ACCT 的短舱把 STOP设在147.3,如果是收盘SHORT,就有利多了,再次敲自己脑壳一下

ST: DOWN
MT: UP
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