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发表于 2012-9-12 06:27 PM
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本帖最后由 snowrider 于 2012-9-12 06:28 PM 编辑
No trade for today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
Big Troop:
- EFA 15% (15%-09/06)
- EEM 20% (20%-08/31)
- IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
- SPY 30% (10%-07/05, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- TLT 15% (15%-08/30)
- Cash 0%
SAC Troop:
- ERX 10% (10%-09/07)
- QLD 23% (23%-09/06)
- SSO 24% (24%-09/06)
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- FAS 12% (8%-08/13, 4%-08/27)
- NUGT 8% (3%-08/21, 5%-08/27)
- Cash 1%
The market gapped up a little bit but closed as a doji today. It was still under the pressue of 1440-1445 resistance area. The past few days are in a flag pattern where the future target will be the same size as the flagpole: 1439-1401=38, 38+1429=1467. After this consolidation, the market will penetrate 1440-1445 resistance, and the upside possible targets are: 1457-1461, 1485 (09/17), 1493, 1530.
Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
07/03's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
08/21's high = [C]
09/04's low = [D]
09/04's high = 1
09/05's low = 2
09/10's high = 3
It looks like that we are in the middle of wave [E].I.5 now, and here are two scenarios:
1. 09/10's low = 4 --> Wave-5 is in Ending Diagonal Triangle format.
--> Watch out for a possible false break and reversal at around 1440.
2. Today's low = 4 --> Wave-5 replicates wave-3.
--> Flag scenario.
Observation key: 1440-1445 resistance. We will see 1461-1467 once the market breaks that resistance; otherwise, we will see a pullback to 1423 and then resume the up trend.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-9-12 04:34 PM
发表于 2012-9-12 09:36 PM
