SPX 荡秋千 2012-10

bucks

2012-1022 12:20pm

chickencoop

bucks 发表于 2012-10-22 12:24 PM
2012-1022 12:20pm

Thanks for the updates

bucks

bad bad decision. It's because of not following the rules. At least 2 were broken today: 1)use daily close price to trade; 2) wait for ST signal to buy or sell. Apparently, there was no signal as mentioned above.

heheboy

bucks 发表于 2012-10-22 12:33 PM
bad bad decision. It's because of not following the rules. At least 2 were broken today: 1)use daily ...

laoda, i ding you for real time trades, ur trade can be out of water easily, don't forget election script, even though today's down is a little big bigger than i thought.

bucks

heheboy 发表于 2012-10-22 12:41 PM
laoda, i ding you for real time trades, ur trade can be out of water easily, don't forget election ...

I don't know. With 1426 lost, bulls are in a very ugly shape now. The best hope is a sharp V-reversal, which you know it's a rare thing in market.

It could be the 3rd wave of a downturn.

heheboy

bucks 发表于 2012-10-22 12:45 PM
I don't know. With 1426 lost, bulls are in a very ugly shape now. The best hope is a sharp V-rever ...

laoda, don't scare me...

bucks

今天咎由自取，撤掉 STOP， 看收盘时价位再做决定。

superxy

AAPL可以入？

bucks

superxy 发表于 2012-10-22 01:44 PM
AAPL可以入？

My focus is on SPY trading. Regarding AAPL, I will wait for the pullback to decide, IMHO.

bucks

bucks 发表于 2012-10-22 12:51 PM
今天咎由自取，撤掉 STOP， 看收盘时价位再做决定。

2012-1022

今天真的是一波三折，中午没遵守纪律操作后，市场继续跌，吓得一塌糊涂。幸亏及时摆正位置，撤掉STOP 142.3 （今日低点142.28，正好被收掉），坚持等到收盘价。柳暗花明又一村，最后竟然还小有盈利了。

教训：ST 系统是基于收盘价，遵守纪律。

不过，ST的LONG 信号还是没有。现在只是一个更短期的buy, 明天可能就卖掉了，而且开盘的未知性非常影响这个TRADE。

SPX 1426盘中被破掉，中期不看好，先看这次反弹强度如何吧。


ST: short, but currently holding short-term bullish positions

MT: unconfirmed short

bucks

不懂 FA， 但 AAPL 今天异常强劲，不知是不是它再次拯救了市场

bucks

看ES 的话，在关键 10/14 低点 1416.5 处精确反弹，所以不同于SPX， ES并没有创新低。 该怎么看 ？

Diffusion

bucks

2012-1023 morning

期指今晨暴跌。跟随昨天SPX，在日线图上也创了新低。

决定开盘价清空 SPY 的ST仓位。

这次一手好牌被MM搞的七荤八素，反而接了一手烂牌。（昨天收盘时超短期的BUY，果然被开盘完全破坏掉）归根结底，没有按照信号操作是最大问题。ST上其实一直是很清楚的 SHORT 信号。

贪婪遮蔽了眼。思过中。。。

austinjoe

Pat, pat. We all make mistake in the market. Look SPX 1423, after open if SPX could not bounce to hit it, it's 1F 3rd sell point, 5F and 30F zone low edge is 1430 above it. Could be very violent drop from here.

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-23 08:07 AM
Pat, pat. We all make mistake in the market. Look SPX 1423, after open if SPX could not bounce to hi ...

yes, the possible violent drop is what I was afraid of. So, cleared the position, and stay sideline o watch until spotting a signal

bucks

2012-1023

as disclosed this morning, cut SPY at open price 141.88.

by closing, ST-wise, still shorts. But becuase of zero position, no plan to re-enter shorts as it could be easily trapped by violent rebound at this level

However, also by closing, I do see a buyable shorter-term bottom, which are supposed to sell sometime tomorrow. Again, tomorrow's gap could be a big uncertainty to totally void this set-up, just as what happened this morning. A statistical evidence doesn't favor that argument though. SPY has been gapping down > 0.15% for 4 days in a row. It's rare to spot another big gap down tomorrow (only 9 times in last 2000 trading days). Therefore, I think it's worth of gambling on a sizable upward move tomorrow. So I bought back SPY at MOC price. (the price afterhours is even more appealing, YMYD).

It's for a very short-term play, not a ST position, and could liquidate anytime.

ST: Down
MT: Down

Diffusion

cat2011

bucks

2012-1023

although gapped up as hoped, the rebound is weak. Set the stop at 141.35 to breakeven for short-term positions acquired yesterday