SPX 荡秋千 2012-11

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-27 08:04 AM

90ufo 发表于 2012-11-27 01:35 AM
HT参加人太少啊. 我是反指, 经常会忘投票. Bespoke那个有好几百人呢.

HT 参与人是少点，不过改成WEEKLY，负担会轻点，容易坚持下去，而且POLL 开在weekend, 希望大家能有更充裕时间参与。

蝶妹倒是别忘了哈，要不然， ” hunt you down “，

kidding

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-27 04:46 PM

本帖最后由 bucks 于 2012-11-27 03:59 PM 编辑

2012-1127

If no surprise by closing (referring to an intraday high), shorts will be entered at today's closing with a stop at ~ 141.6. It will be recorded as full loading in the test account. But my real trading will be just light for fun as I never feel comfrotable of standing on the short side.

ST: UP, but may have been topped

MT: DOWN

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-27 05:02 PM

2012-1127

Final: SPY short at MOC=140.38, Stop at 140.98

Diffusion · 发表于 2012-11-27 05:16 PM

hellofriend · 发表于 2012-11-27 05:18 PM

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-28 11:04 AM

2012-1128

looks today is gonna be bloody for bulls. The topping warning was given on Monday, and confirmed yesterday. I am only light-positioned for shorts, but definitely no longs left in my ST account. Hope someone has listened

lite1067 · 发表于 2012-11-28 11:50 AM

bucks 发表于 2012-11-28 11:04 AM
2012-1128

looks today is gonna be bloody for bulls. The topping warning was given on Monday, and ...

what a news driven market... as described in LZ's title "荡秋千"

I have a conspiracy theory: as it becomes harder and harder for the big boys to trade on insider information, the so called "smart money" will extinct. and then the market will become more clueless upon incoming big news.

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-28 12:18 PM

lite1067 发表于 2012-11-28 10:50 AM
what a news driven market... as described in LZ's title "荡秋千"

great insights.

I turned away from the stocks screen and focused on real working. Then when I came back to check, the tide has been turned around. A big V reversal. That's part of reason I never feel comfortable of shorting the mkt.

Now, move the short stop to a tiny loss price at 140.5. Leave it to the hands of the market. Missing a chance to earn money is fine, but losing as a result of greed or dream is not acceptable. That's a hard lesson I have learned in past years.

lite1067 · 发表于 2012-11-28 01:02 PM

本帖最后由 lite1067 于 2012-11-28 01:03 PM 编辑

bucks 发表于 2012-11-28 12:18 PM
great insights.

I turned away from the stocks screen and focused on real working. Then when I ...

hehe. why sometimes I feel holding long is as tough :-)

i guess the best way to avoid the spontaneous response to the news is to go back to the real work....

I am still holding a few shorts along with longs. waiting for one short theme to realize; or will cut at year end for pure tax purpose.

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-28 01:07 PM

lite1067 发表于 2012-11-28 12:02 PM
hehe. why sometimes I feel holding long is as tough :-)

i guess the best way to avoid the s ...

longs is easy nowadays because the bull market is not officially finished yet. I mean index-relatd ETFs.

lite1067 · 发表于 2012-11-28 01:12 PM

bucks 发表于 2012-11-28 01:07 PM
longs is easy nowadays because the bull market is not officially finished yet. I mean index-relatd ...

true. my 401k longs small cap index only. trading a few times in a year and always beat the broad market. more importantly, it is stress-free and sweat-free :-)

Ironically, on 'active' trading account, so far I lost on several long trades, but lost on only one short trade. the # of total long and short trades should be comparable... 需要深刻检讨一下。。。。担心有没有心理问题。

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-28 01:24 PM

lite1067 发表于 2012-11-28 12:12 PM
true. my 401k longs small cap index only. trading a few times in a year and always beat the broa ...

This year I am starting to realize that, adjusted my strategy, and then my 401k is performing much better than previous.

I am also reducing the frequency of active trading, just like this ST trading thread has been posting. Much less stress, and better performance.

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-28 05:12 PM

本帖最后由 bucks 于 2012-11-28 04:13 PM 编辑

bucks 发表于 2012-11-28 10:04 AM
2012-1128

looks today is gonna be bloody for bulls. The topping warning was given on Monday, and ...

2012-1128

MM 玩的很高，早上洋洋得意时，形势大逆转，幸亏及时调整STOP，微损出局，观望状态。但 ST 已重回牛势，调整已结束。胆大的应该追进，我等到明天再望望。

ST: UP
MT: DOWN

Diffusion · 发表于 2012-11-28 05:17 PM

hellofriend · 发表于 2012-11-28 05:17 PM

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-29 05:11 PM

2012-1129

continue to stay on the sideline. May be topping on ST, but not sure. A gap up and/or making another new high will manifest bulls's strength and will. Otherwise, ............

Diffusion · 发表于 2012-11-29 05:18 PM

bucks · 发表于 2012-11-30 05:16 PM

2012-1130

昨晚乱放了一炮，其实就是说昨天高低点两条线的重要，MM墨迹了一天，也没能冲破这 10点的区间。结论一样，继续观望。市场可上可下，都说得过去。

这是11月最后一贴。三个月来，感谢大家支持，效果也还不错，见#113，收益近 10%。对野鸡系统信心大增。

下个月大部分时间外出度假，就不开贴了。

下年？下年再说吧。

Diffusion · 发表于 2012-11-30 05:21 PM

小鸟 · 发表于 2012-11-30 05:21 PM

继续说吧，下个月，一句话也行。每天收市了再忙也会来看一眼，都成习惯了

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[系列贴] SPX 荡秋千 2012-11