这张图, 看出点什马?

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-29 08:52 AM
说说我的管见:

Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index (CESI) turned negative last week for the firs ...

让我们看一张图，自己却两张图比着看。

我就说怎么最近两周equity fund资金净流出，想来是跟这个有关。。。

不过本季的ER确实是被低估了，而且revenue beat rate较前两个季度大幅好转。大家一直担心美国公司都是靠cutting cost来驱动earnings，如果目前的趋势继续，将来revenue的增长就能驱动earnings了，公司就不用再cutting cost，就业率会改善，经济会进入良性循环。

综合来看，应该有一跌，但可能是熊市最后一跌，是跨度为若干年的长期牛市的序幕，最后的上车机会。

不过吗，根据一般规律，估计会跌倒所有人都哭爹喊娘为止吧。

ctcld

Diffusion 发表于 2013-1-29 11:06 PM
让我们看一张图，自己却两张图比着看。

我就说怎么最近两周equity fund资金净流出，想来是跟 ...

NND， 我这不是走群众路线吗？

最近CASH OUT不是一般的多（包括额。。）

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-30 12:33 AM
NND， 我这不是走群众路线吗？

最近CASH OUT不是一般的多（包括额。。）

开个玩笑。

忽悠了这么久，总算有人来接盘了，还不赶紧。。。

我一直在想催化剂是什么，Fed(明天)，财政紧缩(一个月)，Debt ceiling(将近4个月)。。。

ctcld

Diffusion 发表于 2013-1-29 11:37 PM
开个玩笑。

忽悠了这么久，总算有人来接盘了，还不赶紧。。。

预料中的事都不诱妹。

地雷应该是大本长头发了。。

一枪一个

“熊市的最后一跌”，现在是熊市吗？

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-30 12:42 AM
预料中的事都不诱妹。

地雷应该是大本长头发了。。

silicon_beaver

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-29 04:52 AM
说说我的管见:

Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index (CESI) turned negative last week for the firs ...

太好了

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-30 12:42 AM
预料中的事都不诱妹。

地雷应该是大本长头发了。。

嘿嘿，昨天晚上还在找催化剂，今天的GDP可能就是。

GDP miss 是下跌催化剂
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 32&fromuid=9090

ctcld

Diffusion 发表于 2013-1-30 12:00 PM
嘿嘿，昨天晚上还在找催化剂，今天的GDP可能就是。

GDP miss 是下跌催化剂

The notion of American economic growth took a hit today when the first estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2012 showed a decline of 0.1%. Expectations had been for 1% growth. This the first GDP contraction since Q2 2009.
Despite the horrible headline, Breakout guest Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, ticked off some good news under the headline.
"It's a shocker headline and the bears will have some fun with that, but when you really look at it, I think it's a lot better than that," Paulsen says in the attached clip. His thinking is as follows:
Government Spending was largely to blame
Government spending as a whole declined 6.6% in Q4 after rising 3.9% in the prior quarter. Defense spending fell 22%, the biggest drop since 1972. By contrast, defense spending was up 12.9% in Q3.
Cynics find the notion of a sharp reversal in government spending immediately after a Presidential election suspicious, but the drop had a very real impact on GDP. Regardless, Paulsen thinks the defense spend was a "one-off that won't be repeated."
Consumer Spending Rose While Inventories Fell
Real personal consumption actually accelerated in the quarter, rising 2.2% versus 1.6% in Q3. Durable goods, often a sign of long-term consumer confidence, rose 13.9%.
Inventories fell in the quarter, taking 1.27% off the GDP number after adding .73 in Q3. That either suggests pent up production demand to restock or a lack of business confidence. With the uptick in personal consumption, Paulsen is betting it's the former.
"I think even the bears would agree when you look at the private sector performance, the business and consumer spending, that's pretty solid across the components," he says.
Considering the GDP number in the context of all other data, Paulsen says there's nothing to suggest a sustainable economic decline.
Impact on Fed Thinking
It may not be a sustainable decline, but it happens just hours before the FOMC policy statement. Traders are apparently okay shaking off an oft-revised data point, but a change in Fed policy is a much different matter.
Paulsen rejects the notion that the Fed is going to change it's thinking based on this morning's number. "I think the Fed knows this is a one-off distorted number as well," he states. "They're going to be much more tied to what happens here later in the week with the jobs number."

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2013-1-30 01:41 PM
The notion of American economic growth took a hit today when the first estimate of Gross Domestic  ...

en, 三个因素，财政，消费，Fed。看看谁能掐赢谁。。。