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本帖最后由 Lexian 于 2013-6-29 12:14 PM 编辑
这个是另一贴的续篇， 另起新贴， 多攒些分，呵呵。
Well, first of all, Gold is of value, it is in fact the standard of value. and i have long said it has a bottom, not like stock, which can become absolutely worthless if the company not able to survive.
From technical point of view, besides support and resistant, one useful tool is the deviation from the 50wk MA. The swing to each side often times are similar in range. look at the over run and correction in 2008-2009, it is exact 31% from the 2008 peak to bottom, this time is just about $41, which equivalent to 410 point in spot gold price. in a sense, i feel this correction may be already a little overdone, because percentage wise its 20% more to the downside, likely due to margin calls and panic selling. Short term panic may push it down further, but won't be too much more down. Long term investor should be fairly comfortable buy in here. - imagine if you had bot in Oct 2008 at 70! The next move for the next 6 month will be price upward swing to meet the 50ma, after testing the center of gravity line, at roughly 135 range. Depends on the result of the test - this could be the valley of the next hyperbolic run. Notice the 2008 sell off, the bottom barely went down below the last wing high in 2006.
The recent sell off is mostly because of unwinding of positions that was built up from 2009 in light of market uncertainty and unprecedented Fed QE. However, long term wise i won't be too bearish on Gold. Its a hedge against Risk and Inflation, both of which had been discounted a lot lately but both are still realistic threats. Remember the turmoil in Greece? Now we have China, probably over 100time bigger, going through credit problem. I don't think it has been fully reflected in the market.
In short, for short term trading - long, for midterm position holding - wait, for long term investing - start loading.
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发表于 2013-6-29 12:13 PM
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