The Story of TLT, again, personal view

Lexian

Treasury bond had enjoyed a 10 year boom. rising from 50's in 2003 all the way to 130 in 2013. But i think the cyclical bull cycle had seen its high.

from the early days 2003-2005, the rise correlated with rapid increase of China export surplus. and China chose treasury bond to park their surplus, along the way,  housing bubble erupted in 2006, people haven't seen that low an interest before, wall street invented CDO to take full advantage of “cheap” money，by cheap, only meant to compare to before. ain't real cheap compare to what is to come.

Housing bubble erupted and almost killed the banking system, throw everything else into trash. TLT enjoyed a rapid boom because of risk off effect. It came down gradually but economy is so week that it needs transfusion. Here comes Big Ben and his QE, Federal Reserve keep buying treasury bond to artificially keep the bond high and interest low. They had tried a couple times to stop the transfusion but only to restart again because of poor economy performance. So here it is, at the unforeseen level.  

The exit from bond had started last December, along with money return from emerging market and money coming off precious metal,  all contributed fueling the rapid rise of stock market.  and i think the trend will continue - stock market will see new high this year. However, currently the TLT just from a head and shoulder, on the monthly chart, recent break down of the neck line - its very likely it goes up and retest the neck line again. some would say because Fed may not taper QE, It could be simply because it's a save, smart money made some quick money from stock market, they can park it in the treasury bond, it may come down, but for sure much safer than stock. Eventually though, i see TLT heading to 104, where the 50MMA will be. breaking down of that will signal the doom of bond.

bullpop

谢谢大夫大牛的分析！

棋王

以后跟你混了。。。。

bullpop

棋王 发表于 2013-6-30 12:03 PM
以后跟你混了。。。。

呵呵，大夫大牛现在就有很多followers.....

棋棋也是大牛啊！

zhizhengwd

老大多发言，我等小散多学习！谢谢了，祝周末愉快！

zhizhengwd

棋王 发表于 2013-6-30 12:03 PM
以后跟你混了。。。。

棋王老大还在？我本以为正在收拾行囊。。。

源济

非常感谢！

acoust

Jeff

当时惘然

钱从债市流出，进入股市。。。

Elephant

zxnk

多谢大夫兄的精彩分析，六月60B的money流出bond fund, 墙街报说bond先跌，then spread to stock market.
Housing 数据一两个月内必peak

GnGSystem

TLT，2003年好像是$85，减去10年分红之后是$50多一些。

Lexian

6 wks after the original post, TLT tumble below 104 support - exodus from bond continued, including China now reported decreasing their hold of bond.

money had flowed to gold and stock. but i think this flow will slow or reverse soon. big market is in distribution. precious metal will continue to rise - now people see the threat of inflation! well, it should be anticipated after seeing last quarterly payroll number - increase of payroll number combine with increase salary are bound to make more money competing with same amount of goods.  exit of bond will slow or even rebound - the fixed believe is QE will taper soon and it has been largely been priced quickly.  

dsp

Lexian 发表于 2013-8-17 11:39 PM
6 wks after the original post, TLT tumble below 104 support - exodus from bond continued, including  ...

Looks we need to buy real gold.

milan1126

支持大牛，分析的非常好，great rotation is coming~

superxy

Lexian 发表于 2013-8-17 11:39 PM
6 wks after the original post, TLT tumble below 104 support - exodus from bond continued, including  ...

还是有些不明白。
Taper的话，对金银是利空，美元升值，对金银也是利空。