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本帖最后由 Lexian 于 2013-6-30 11:38 AM 编辑
Treasury bond had enjoyed a 10 year boom. rising from 50's in 2003 all the way to 130 in 2013. But i think the cyclical bull cycle had seen its high.
from the early days 2003-2005, the rise correlated with rapid increase of China export surplus. and China chose treasury bond to park their surplus, along the way, housing bubble erupted in 2006, people haven't seen that low an interest before, wall street invented CDO to take full advantage of “cheap” money,by cheap, only meant to compare to before. ain't real cheap compare to what is to come.
Housing bubble erupted and almost killed the banking system, throw everything else into trash. TLT enjoyed a rapid boom because of risk off effect. It came down gradually but economy is so week that it needs transfusion. Here comes Big Ben and his QE, Federal Reserve keep buying treasury bond to artificially keep the bond high and interest low. They had tried a couple times to stop the transfusion but only to restart again because of poor economy performance. So here it is, at the unforeseen level.
The exit from bond had started last December, along with money return from emerging market and money coming off precious metal, all contributed fueling the rapid rise of stock market. and i think the trend will continue - stock market will see new high this year. However, currently the TLT just from a head and shoulder, on the monthly chart, recent break down of the neck line - its very likely it goes up and retest the neck line again. some would say because Fed may not taper QE, It could be simply because it's a save, smart money made some quick money from stock market, they can park it in the treasury bond, it may come down, but for sure much safer than stock. Eventually though, i see TLT heading to 104, where the 50MMA will be. breaking down of that will signal the doom of bond. |
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QE AND TLT
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