没有悬念的是payroll number will beat forecast

Lexian

前两个月(May, June)的payroll 都是beat forecast. May was 165k vs consensus 150k consensus, June was 175k vs 168k consensus. unexpected strong employment number had invoked the massive sell off. I do not believe the Market will suddenly change the mood and be boiled by the strong employment number which is almost known for sure.

Strong number in the usually weak summer month hiring season means those jobs are not seasonal, rather are steady jobs. Fed will have no reason to keep the QE in place unless they just want to please the Market. which way to go is still hard to say. From the chart, i still think the rise last week is a weak rebound in a correct - there is not much buying rather than selling on the rebound. /ES back to 50ma on the easing news out of Europe.  Could go either way still.

葡萄柚

Thanks for sharing!

Jeff

thanks!

当时惘然

zhizhengwd

Lexian

Payroll strong and market took it seriously that Fed will taper, all yield related product see huge drop, including bond utilities and telecoms. Emergent market is further entrench in red.

Interest rate moving up is bad for housing, which was a strong pillar for US recovery. Will the economy can still walk if one of the 2 legs (auto and housing) get chopped off, I don't know, but anxiety will definitely linger.

EU's promise of more cheap money is a surprise in the picture,  Stronger dollar is another blow to Gold。 Ouch, jump the gun on Gld on Wednesday. I'm still holding though. The selling mild compare to earlier. The plan was to sell and get quick profit if short recovery would bring it to fill the gap between 125-128, but however, the long plan of building position here around 120 is also in the picture.  

i think market volatility will increase next week and people have time to think about the impact of rising long term interest rate on economy. 50MA is a major resistance for SPY and i would not bet long before spy break through and close above.  

lilitulip

lilitulip

Lexian

Hard to believe 30yr mortgage rate will jump over 5% by Monday, according to CNBC.

zhizhengwd

大夫不光能看妇科，搞预测也是高手啊！跟着楼主混了！

棋王

大夫越来越像股评家了，，，嘻嘻。。。

依妹