2013-09-28_weekly updates on CHAN chart

austinjoe

No major change on monthly and daily chart  as posted for last week here -- 2013-09-21_weekly updates on CHAN chart.


1> On Monthly chart, The rise from D12 is in the 背驰段 compare to D4-D5 and D10-D11 on monthly chart.

2> Daily chart shows details of D12-D13 from monthly. D13 is not being decided yet. Orange line is finished 8 30F走势, which gives 2 day 中枢 and the corresponding range is as following format -- DD [ZD, ZG] GG:

1266 [1343, 1422] 1474

1560 [1627, 1687] 1709

3> The two 5F 中枢 up trend from end of August 162x is ended on 1729.66. There is one new 5F 走势 heads south, this new 5F中枢 is red circle on 30min chart:

1691.88 [1694.90, 1705.03] 1707.63

while the yellow box is 1F中枢 is

1687.11 [1688.81, 1692.45] 1693.33

As of the end of Friday 09-27-2013, this new 5F 走势 is 5F盘整背驰.

Unless the bear could break down to 166x area decisively & quickly next Monday/Tues, SPX will re-test 1729 again next week. Noticed this week SPX is in a down wedge and both MACD and RSI have positive divergence on 30min chart. By next Wed, once the US gov shut down is clear out and not being closed as WallStreet worried about this week, bull will fight back.

5F 中枢 from 162x low to 1729 is listed as week for reference: 1633 [1640, 1651] 1659 and 1678 [1681, 1683] 1689.

葡萄柚

Good analysis!  Thanks for sharing. 希望以后继续看到这样的实时更新。

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bucks

葡萄柚

老大， 关于你写的“Unless the bear could break down to 166x area decisively & quickly next Monday/Tues, SPX will re-test 1729 again next week”。 我也希望是这样。 但是唯一的concern 是MACD 日线死叉了。 你怎么看？

austinjoe

葡萄柚 发表于 2013-9-28 12:52 PM
老大， 关于你写的“Unless the bear could break down to 166x area decisively & quickly next Monday/Tu ...

1> MACD cross down is a warning sign now. However, you could look previous one on late July 2013 and see how it dips down first then cross up again before true down movement.

2> For mid-term top on SPX, V shape reversal is very rear, while bottom has much more chance on V reversal. V shape reversal will not give big guy enough chance to unload.

葡萄柚

Thanks for the reply!   Another thing is that VIX is trying to break out. The MACD of VIX is trying to break out from negative territory. How do you think about this?  

葡萄柚

Sorry, 不知道怎么多点开了几个回复框

葡萄柚

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葡萄柚

austinjoe 发表于 2013-9-28 11:01 PM
1> MACD cross down is a warning sign now. However, you could look previous one on late July 2013 a ...

Government near being closed.  Lao da, do you still think SP will retest 1729? Thanks.

austinjoe

葡萄柚 发表于 2013-9-29 08:42 AM
Government near being closed.  Lao da, do you still think SP will retest 1729? Thanks.

We should focus on this 5F中枢 1691.88 [1694.90, 1705.03] 1707.63. Bull needs to make 3rd buy to retest 1729.

Monday gap down is 1st 5F盘整背驰 and bull were able to make it  back to 1696 via one 1F中枢 1F走势. Then Thursday low 1670 is 2nd 5F盘整背驰, this time bull made a 2 1F中枢 without overlap, but has not touch 1694.9 yet. Note there is a new 30F  -- please refer to my new weekly update here.