|
金融系统的一个重要功能就是管理债务,因为债务是社会发展的必然。现在文明社会不可能是以物易物的,也不能是以黄金来易物的,因为它们背弃了货币的责能,是一种反生产力的倒退。国民经济生产力的发展需要资金,需要举债。而生产力再发展,也需要资金,需要举债。
Government debt (also known as public debt and national debt)[1][2] is the debt owed by a central government. (In the U.S. and other federal states, "government debt" may also refer to the debt of a state or provincial government, municipal or local government.) By contrast, the annual "government deficit" refers to the difference between government receipts and spending in a single year, that is, the increase of debt over a particular year.
Government debt is one method of financing government operations, but it is not the only method. Governments can also create money to monetize their debts, thereby removing the need to pay interest. But this practice simply reduces government interest costs rather than truly canceling government debt,[3] and can result in hyperinflation if used unsparingly.
Governments usually borrow by issuing securities, government bonds and bills. Less creditworthy countries sometimes borrow directly from a supranational organization (e.g. the World Bank) or international financial institutions.
为了举债,就必须发行债券。
A government bond is a bond issued by a national government. Such bonds are often denominated in the country's domestic currency. Government bonds are sometimes regarded as risk-free bonds, because national governments can raise taxes or reduce spending up to a certain point, and in extreme cases they can "print more money" to redeem the bond at maturity. Most developed country governments are prohibited by law from printing money directly, that function having been relegated to their central banks. However, central banks may buy government bonds in order to finance government spending, thereby monetizing the debt.
Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. Investors in sovereign bonds denominated in foreign currency have the additional risk that the issuer may be unable to obtain foreign currency to redeem the bonds.
借债必须还债,否则就是Default,就失去了Credit。有sovereign危机。那么还债的能力是怎样衡量呢?通常是看占GDP的比重。下面几张图可以跟踪全球主要的经济体的债务情况和比重。
美国的债务又是怎么回事?
金融危机后,有一本警世读本 -《纸变钱的游戏:美国债务真相》给出了历史性的总结,也给出了警世预言。其中作者自己也没明白:
美国负债累累,Fed能印钞救市,越印美元越抢手,这纸变钱的游戏到底能玩多久?
其实明白了水涨船高的道理就不难理解。美元作为世界货币的储备有着它的特殊地位,社会进步,生产力发展,举债能力必然要提高。这就是块大饼,越铺越大,也和宇宙学的黎曼空间一样。当然总有一天会膨胀到极限爆破,但这应该是个相当长的时间。然而,导致08年的金融危机的原因,是华尔街破坏了游戏规则,贪婪地将金融杠杆无限放大。造成了失控的状态。
今天的这种失控的状态,可以说已经紧紧地被Fed控制,尽管它在QE,但它牢牢地控制着货币流通的速率,而监管部门也在不断地去杠杆化。明白了这些道理,你就可以放心地做多,追求股市的回报。
中国的问题
中国虽然是美国的债权国,却又背着沉重的地方债务。
香港有的金融机构估计,地方债务其实中国已经到了24.4万亿人民币,那么按这个数量的话,就是光地方债务已经占到中国GDP的45%,那么再加上中央债务的14.4%,中国的债务其实也突破了国际标准的GDP的60%,这就是当前国内物价飞涨的动因。也是个纸变钱的游戏。
所以,各家都有各家的难处。各家都已经知道自己的问题。已知就是可控,这也就是我对Future持乐观的态度。
|
评分
-
17
查看全部评分
-
|