S&P：QE“印钱”是个有误导性的说法。

ctcld

彭博编辑：Dalio错了，QE不是印钱

今年9月，对冲基金巨头Bridgewater Associates创始人Ray Dalio有一段约半小时的视频“经济机器怎样运转”（How the Economic Machine Works）在YouTube发布。至今收获了50多万次点击。

这段视频清晰表述了过度借款怎样导致繁荣和萧条。《纽约时报》发现，前美国财长保尔森（Henry Paulson）向好友转发了相关链接，前美联储主席沃克尔（Paul Volcker）也喜欢这段视频。

在配合视频一起公布的PDF文件中，Dalio称：

“印”钱的形式是央行购买政府证券和非政府资产，后者包括企业证券、股票和其他资产。

这也就是Dalio对QE的看法。

而彭博经济报道编辑Peter Coy认为，Dalio并没能正确理解QE与印钱的关系：

QE不是“印钱”。如果是，货币供应量会高涨，美国的经济增长率和通胀率都会高得多。

相反，美联储的QE只是成功地给银行系统提供了大量没有需求的储备金。

对银行来说，增加货币规模的方法是增加贷款。

借款方会将大部分资金存起来，也会将部分资金用来保证开销。这会增加买卖双方的流通货币规模。

货币流通过程大多是美联储控制不了的。

Dalio的视频让人觉得，美联储的宽松是肯定能解决通缩问题的方法，唯一让人担心的是可能宽松过度导致通胀。
但标准普尔旗下评级机构首席全球经济学家Paul Sheard指出：

一旦央行下调政策利率至零或接近于零，而且还需要增加宽松政策，那么在去杠杆的环境下，央行就不应在货币政策中储藏太多的刺激潜能。

Coy向Sheard问起Dalio上述视频里的印钱观点，Sheard说自己没有看过视频，无法评论，他个人对QE与印钱的看法是：

QE“印钱”是个有误导性的说法。

美联储的确通过QE注入了更多的储备金，但同时也通过货币流通减少了市面的债券。

所以说，QE实际上改变了私人部门的资产负债表结构。

以下Sheard提供的图表展示了美国M2与银行准备金比率走势。数据来自美国圣路易斯联储。

以下可见美国M2和银行准备金1990年以来增长走势。

ctcld

ctcld

http://www.businessweek.com/arti ... s-wrong-about-money


What Billionaire Ray Dalio Gets Wrong About Money

(Updates with quotes from Paul Sheard in new 9th paragraph.)

Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s half-hour video animation How the Economic Machine Works has gotten more than half a million hits on YouTube since it went live in September, which is pretty good for a piece with no kittens. It’s a clear description of how over-borrowing leads to booms and busts. According to the New York Times, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been sending the link to friends, and former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker is a fan.

But the founder of Bridgewater Associates gets one thing wrong—not once but repeatedly—and it leads him to a wrong conclusion about how the economy can recover from busts.

STORY: A Hawkish Yellen? One Economics Firm Thinks So
Dalio says central banks such as the Federal Reserve can lift an economy out of a rut by printing money. In a 210-page document (PDF) on the Bridgewater website that’s a kind of companion to the video, he writes: “This ‘printing’ of money takes the form of central bank purchases of government securities and non-government assets such as corporate securities, equities and other assets.” In other words, quantitative easing.

Dalio isn’t going out on a limb here, to be sure. This is a widely held view that has been expressed by such luminary economists of the right and left as Martin Feldstein of Harvard University, John Taylor of the Hoover Institution, Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon University, and Alan Blinder of Princeton. (For references, see endnote 2 here [PDF]). It is, however, incorrect.

Quantitative easing isn’t “printing money.” If it were, the supply of money would have soared and the U.S. would have either much more economic growth or much more inflation—or probably some of each. Instead, the Fed’s purchases have merely managed to give the banking system a huge increase in unneeded reserves.

STORY: Why We'll Still Never See a 100% Reserve Economy
The way to increase the amount of money—and get the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to rev up its presses—is for banks to make more loans. Borrowers will put most of the money on deposit, but they will take some of it out to spend. That will increase the amount of money being passed around between buyers and sellers—i.e., in circulation. That process is largely beyond the Fed’s control.

An excellent explanation of how money works is Repeat After Me: Banks Cannot And Do Not ‘Lend Out’ Reserves (PDF). It’s by Paul Sheard, chief global economist of Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (MHP). Sheard may not be a billionaire like Dalio, but he has had an illustrious career in finance at Nomura (NMR), Lehman, and Baring and in academia as a professor at universities in Australia, the U.S., and Japan.

Dalio’s video makes Fed easing seem like a guaranteed solution to deflation, the only worry being that the central bank might be too successful in turning things around and accidentally cause inflation. But as Sheard writes, “One should not put much store in monetary policy’s stimulatory potential in a deleveraging environment once the central bank has cut the policy rate to or near to zero and still needs to ease policy more.” Which is the situation we’re in now.

STORY: David Stockman Takes On the Fed's Easy-Money Policies—and the World
I asked Sheard about Dalio’s video. He responded by email today that he hadn’t seen it so he couldn’t comment. He wrote, “The main point I would make about the ‘money printing’ view of QE [quantitative easing] is that it is a misleading term.” Yes, the Fed injects more reserves through QE. But it simultaneously removes bonds from circulation. So it’s really just changing the composition of the private sector’s balance sheet.

There is no printing press in the basement of the Fed. Not literally, of course. Not conceptually, either.

Coy_190
Coy is Bloomberg Businessweek's economics editor.


http://www.standardandpoors.com/ ... fter_Me_8_14_13.pdf

福多多

QE是印钱，但不是简单地印钱，而是通过货币的运作改变各经济单元的财务状况。
或者说这是FED对经济的一种bail out，也是各经济单元所需把握的一个机遇。

FED会犯错，但是能够真正发现FED的错误的人极少。大多数以为发现FED错误的人
都以失败告终。

九天

QE是极端财经政策，可能跟日本的方法类似，就是大肆买自己发行的国债。
日本的JGB， 可能90%以上是日本政府买的，没有人玩啦。
美国自己发行的Bond， Note，目前自己买。

QE那个钱，并没有进入流通，所以保持了物价稳定。

Read0nly

九天 发表于 2013-11-18 03:11 AM
QE是极端财经政策，可能跟日本的方法类似，就是大肆买自己发行的国债。
日本的JGB， 可能90%以上是日本政府 ...

QE的钱怎么可能没进入流通。银行拿到的钱不说，光说QE3每个月85T当中45T买的国债，难道O8都把这些钱揣自己腰包了？其实这些钱都以各种方式进入民众之手，支撑美国的所谓消费经济。没QE的钱不停地流出撑着台面，O8早被轰下台了。美国人拿着印出来的钱都花在买中国制造的东西，对自己的通胀的压力当然小。再者说物价稳定要看你怎样计算CCI了。从股指到GDP的计算不是一直都在玩手脚。美国人懒，只要政府想办法生钱，才没人关心政府玩儿的花活，反正债是政府扛着，不是个人背着。不然哪儿会有今天债务高入云天的局面。

九天

Read0nly 发表于 2013-11-18 10:03 AM
QE的钱怎么可能没进入流通。银行拿到的钱不说，光说QE3每个月85T当中45T买的国债，难道O8都把这些钱揣自己 ...

没有看过QE资金流向图。原以为每月859亿就是买自己的债卷和银行公司股票什么的。
谢谢指教。

不容易啊

看了视频后第一感觉, treasury 借的钱很多一部份是用在social benefit上的, 而这部分的钱有可能绝大部分是用在消费上, 而不是用在capital investment 上, 产生不了利息回报, 对经济增长不起作用.

ctcld

不容易啊 发表于 2013-11-18 09:48 PM
看了视频后第一感觉, treasury 借的钱很多一部份是用在social benefit上的, 而这部分的钱有可能绝大部分是用 ...

video 小循环 -- 大循环，Credit - Debt。。。比教科书讲解得还清楚。。

但QE的部分模糊了概念。QE不是直接增加货币的供应量。不是印钱 -- 美元购买力没下降。这点从油价就可以证明。

QE的钱的确没有直接流入市场，而是直接“借“给银行作为储备。（实际上是买了银行的有毒资产债务），而银行在交了保障金后可以把自己的钱投入市场，这样就造成水库的水很多，保障了下游的供应。但银行并没有完全把QE的钱房贷，而是部分投入了风险市场。这也就是不断有资金流入股市，当然国际游资也来汇流。所以股市不断升高见怪不怪。

这也就是华尔街希望QE能晚点Taper。

dividend_growth

二战时期才是真正的印钱，流通的货币（M0）至少翻了5倍

嘁哩喀喳

QE当然是印钱。QE的钱哪里来的？

Kami

QE is printing money.  Money is fungible.  Whether you put it in the safe, under the pillow, in your account or over the counter, it is money.  

In other words, you could say the banks use their hard earned cash (deposit) as reserve, and use the "printed cash" to inject into new origination or buy risky assets.  It is illusionary to say only those "reserved" money is what QE does.

Put it in another way, without QE, with the same reserve requirement, the bank would put in less money/liquidity into the market.  

九天

ctcld  Qe 的渠道是商业机密。但楼下我给了运作的说明。

QE 资金流向保密期是一个月吧。
日本已经QE几十年了，QE买自己的国债，接受大公司大银行的不良资产甚至直接买它们的股票。
老美大概照样学，

Cheese

Thanks for sharing!

LLN

ctcld 发表于 2013-11-17 10:55 PM
本帖最后由 ctcld 于 2013-11-17 10:14 PM 编辑

从这个视频我想到的是在危机时，credit 换不来钱，所以QE印的钱不会流到消费者手中，所以不会产生通货膨胀。

但是当危机缓和后，credit能换来钱了，QE印的钱就会流到消费者手中了，通胀就爆发了。

由于政府的债务太大，提高利率是不可完成的任务，通胀危机就无解了。

dividend_growth

九天 发表于 2013-11-19 02:05 AM
ctcld  Qe 的渠道是商业机密。但楼下我给了运作的说明。

QE 资金流向保密期是一个月吧。

美国不是照样学，而是变本加厉更上一层楼。

日本人从来就缺乏创造力和创新的勇气。

过山车

LLN 发表于 2013-11-19 11:34 PM
从这个视频我想到的是在危机时，credit 换不来钱，所以QE印的钱不会流到消费者手中，所以不会产生通货膨胀 ...

债务要看是存量债务还是增量债务，提高利率不影响存量债务的成本，而只会影响增量债务的发行成本。如果美国政府缓解了赤字问题，那么提高利率就不会影响债务问题，反而会大大降低还债成本。如果恰当地抓住时机，短期内猛提利率，也许能够有效消减债务负担，my two cents

ctcld

过山车 发表于 2013-11-22 03:49 PM
债务要看是存量债务还是增量债务，提高利率不影响存量债务的成本，而只会影响增量债务的发行成本。如果美 ...

你这个逻辑是因果颠倒。