不做荐股，风险自付。这两天AFSI又过山车，原因是SHORTER在搅

ctcld

http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... -financial-services

http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... ust#comments_header

A Business Economics Analyst 评论
Interesting trading around the timing of this article. Yesterday, AFSI was way down, over 7% (+4% more after hours), on no news. Then today, after this article was published, it is up substantially.
The issue here is that the author started with a view, "AFSI's reported results appeared "too good to be true" as the company grew rapidly without a misstep along the way" and then sought to find facts to support that view, rather than gathering the facts and basing the view on the facts.
AFSI results aren't "too good to be true" anymore than Warren Buffett's are. Like Buffett, AFSI has done very well by purchasing companies and assets at very steep discounts (in AFSI's case usually distressed situations).
The author admittedly is just speculation, as the author continues to use words like "believe", "suspect", and other similar terms. See the difference when the author affirmatively states as fact problems with Chinese companies, without any such qualifying language.
The author does not have a basis to challenge the reserving, and even the author admits they don't have enough information to reach a definitive conclusion, they just have suspicions or beliefs about it.
My review indicates that AFSI is not underreserved and that the life settlements are not overstated, particularly because they were purchased at such dirt cheap prices. Having read through the article, I don't see any basis for the conclusions reached in it, the logic and reasoning are convoluted, hard to follow, and don't make sense. The author appears to not understand how the accounting is done, comparing apples to oranges and mixing and matching figures from different accounts and entities that don't necessarily relate to each other.


Investors are betting against Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI), Should You? - Tale of the Tape
By Zacks.com,  January 10, 2014, 07:57:01 AM ED

Many investors appear to be quite bearish Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI) especially if you look at the percentage of the float that is sold short for this stock. Currently, 30.6% of the float is sold short, suggesting an extreme level of bearishness for AFSI.

However, it is worth noting that earnings estimates have actually been moving higher for the company, despite the pessimism. Thanks to these rising estimates, we actually have a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)on AFSI, so we clearly don't believe in the negativity surrounding this firm, and are instead looking for shares of AFSI to move higher in the weeks ahead.

ctcld

方舟子？http://www.geoinvesting.com/

wsjboy

ctcld 发表于 2014-1-14 06:05 PM
方舟子？http://www.geoinvesting.com/

haha!

catbear

这个我当时就问过你啊。

我发现， 在这个网站公布AFSI有财务问题前的1-2个月， 有人买了大量的PUT。 大的惊人。 此网站爆料后AFSI股价暴跌， 部分PUT获利走人了。但还有部分坚持阵地。

jasmine

正好给个进场机会。 ：）

kkgrd

miss that drop.

Sparrow

AmTrust Surges Most Since 2012 As Profit Beats Analyst Estimates

<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... tes.html?cmpid=yhoo>

学游老大: 下来AFSI的大概趋势应该如何看？

thyme1

那就讲讲大势？

6degrees

C版推荐几个长期看好、有巨大升值潜力，而现在又没有开始动的股票。